OPEC+ members are reportedly set to agree another oil output increase on May 3, with the UAE’s exit changing the size—yet shipping limits via the Strait of Hormuz could cap real gains.
LONDON — OPEC+ is heading toward another pivotal meeting on May 3, with several members reportedly leaning toward agreeing a further rise in oil output targets.
According to three people familiar with the talks, seven members are likely to sign off on an additional increase when they gather on May 3, while the UAE’s departure from OPEC+ is expected to reshape the size of that hike.. The adjustment matters because the group’s earlier planning had assumed the UAE would remain part of the production framework.
The timing has become more complicated since the UAE’s surprise announcement on April 28 that it would exit OPEC and OPEC+ from May 1.. Before that move, eight other members of the wider group were widely expected to proceed with a step-up of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June—mirroring similar increases scheduled for April and May.. Now, those same members are expected to continue with an increase that effectively removes the UAE’s 18,000 bpd share.
One reason this matters beyond internal calculations is that “targets” and “deliveries” are not always the same thing. Even if the group agrees to raise quotas, several producers may find they are constrained in how much they can actually put on the market.
Part of the constraint is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.. With the US-Israeli war involving Iran, shipping lanes through the strait have faced disruptions, which can translate into slower loading, higher transport risk, and logistical friction for crude flows—even when producers are willing and able to lift output.
There is also an element of uncertainty around whether the decision is truly final.. While the expectation is for a May 3 agreement, one person involved in the discussions said the group has not yet made a decision ahead of the meeting.. OPEC did not respond immediately to a request for comment, leaving markets to read the tea leaves from the evolving negotiations.
For consumers and businesses, the practical question is simple: how much additional oil reaches buyers, and at what cost.. When shipping routes are constrained, even a negotiated output increase can be blunted, keeping supply tight and price expectations elevated.. That tends to ripple into fuel costs, industrial input prices, and broader inflation concerns—especially in economies that rely on steady seaborne crude movements.
From a market perspective, the UAE’s exit also shifts the internal balance of influence within OPEC+.. Removing one member’s share changes the arithmetic of any new target, but it also signals that member cohesion may be more fragile than investors previously assumed.. If countries begin to redefine their participation around political or strategic priorities, the group may find future adjustments harder to standardize.
The next few days before May 3 are likely to be filled with speculation about how much flexibility remains.. Producers that can’t reliably access or transport oil may push for smaller or more conditional quota adjustments.. Meanwhile, any agreement that assumes supply can flow freely may face a reality check if Hormuz disruptions persist.
In the background, this is a test of how OPEC+ manages a world where both policy and geography matter.. A decision on output targets is one lever; the other is the ability to move crude through critical chokepoints.. If those lanes remain constrained, the group’s paper increases may not translate into the kind of relief markets typically seek.