Former President Olusegun Obasanjo says NNPC refineries won’t work again, arguing past attempts failed due to scale, maintenance, and corruption concerns. Misryoum reports.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has once again reignited a debate about Nigeria’s refining capacity, insisting that NNPC refineries will never work again.
Speaking in recent commentary, Obasanjo framed his warning around a long-running dispute between political promises and the realities of running large industrial facilities.. His position comes as President Bola Tinubu had previously expressed confidence that the Port Harcourt refinery would begin production by December 2023 after rehabilitation work involving NNPCL and the Italian firm Maire Tecnimont SpA.
Obasanjo’s criticism is not new, but what makes his latest intervention resonate is the underlying clash of authority: political confidence versus technical feasibility.. When Tinubu’s camp responded that Obasanjo was not an engineer and therefore should not comment, Obasanjo doubled down, arguing that his view was informed by information he received during his presidency and by what he learned from Shell—both of which, he suggested, point to structural problems rather than temporary setbacks.
Why Obasanjo says NNPC refineries can’t be fixed
At the heart of Obasanjo’s argument is his claim that the core model used to revive the refineries is flawed.. He pointed to Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) as a counterexample, describing it as a project that has continued largely because the private sector holds 51% while the government holds 49%.. His broader point was that when responsibilities are shared in a way that prevents state projects from stalling, outcomes improve.
He also connected his view to earlier decisions and partnerships involving Nigeria’s transport and energy infrastructure, arguing that many state-run ventures have suffered disruption.. In that sense, his warning is less about one refinery and more about what he believes has been Nigeria’s recurring inability to keep industrial projects functional once politics and governance risks enter the picture.
Analytically, Obasanjo’s stance suggests that rehabilitation contracts, while important, may not address the deeper operational questions that determine whether refineries can reliably produce fuel.. Refineries are not just assets that can be returned to service by repairs; they require sustained maintenance discipline, competent management, and a corruption-resistant environment.
The Shell concerns Obasanjo says ended the plan
Obasanjo said he tried to persuade Shell to take equity and run the refineries. He claimed the response was refusal, and he described two layers of explanation he received from a senior Shell official.
First, he said Shell’s thinking was tied to incentives: the company, according to his account, earns most of its profit from the upstream rather than the downstream.. Second, he said the firm raised issues about the scale of Nigeria’s refineries, describing them as too small compared with what it considered more viable ranges.
He further said Shell questioned whether the refineries were properly maintained, pointing to a pattern of what he called quacks and amateurs handling maintenance work.. In addition, he cited concerns about corruption around the refineries, saying Shell did not want to be pulled into an environment where governance problems could undermine operations.
These claims matter because they outline a risk map that goes beyond engineering. If a refinery is repeatedly under-maintained, managed by rotating or underqualified teams, or exposed to corruption-driven inefficiencies, even well-funded rehabilitation may struggle to produce long-term results.
What this debate means for Nigeria’s fuel economy
For many Nigerians, the refinery discussion is not abstract.. It directly touches fuel prices, supply stability, and the pressure on households and businesses that depend on predictable energy.. When political timelines stretch and production starts fail to land as promised, the public typically feels it through shortages, higher costs, and frustration over repeated announcements.
Obasanjo’s message also puts Tinubu’s confidence under sharper scrutiny.. If the obstacles are truly structural—maintenance quality, governance integrity, and the size/viability of plants—then future timelines may depend less on contract announcements and more on whether management systems can withstand the pressures that previously disrupted progress.
There is also a wider implication for policy: the government may need to treat refinery revival as an operations-first project, not only a rehabilitation-and-launch exercise.. That means protecting technical teams, ensuring consistent funding for maintenance, and reducing incentives for rent-seeking around procurement and operations.
For Misryoum readers, the key takeaway is that the disagreement between political statements and Obasanjo’s expectations is ultimately about feasibility and follow-through.. Until Nigeria can demonstrate that refineries can run with dependable maintenance, credible oversight, and manageable operational risk, the argument that NNPC refineries will never work again will continue to find an audience..