NOAA predicts the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be “below normal,” with an estimated one to three major hurricanes—yet officials urged Americans to prepare as if impacts could still be severe. The forecast hinges on an expected return of El Niño, which m
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may bring fewer storms than last year’s fears have trained people to expect—but the warnings from NOAA didn’t sound like relief.
At a press conference on Thursday. NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs said the season is likely to be “below normal. ” with an estimated one to three “major hurricanes” forming in the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic season runs from the start of June through the end of November. During that span. Jacobs laid out probabilities of about a 55 percent chance of “below normal” hurricane season conditions. a 35 percent chance of “near normal” conditions. and a 10 percent chance of “above normal” conditions.
Those percentages translate into the kind of uncertainty that still keeps emergency managers awake. NOAA put the equivalent of eight to 14 “named storms”—including both tropical storms and hurricanes—on the table. “Major hurricanes” are defined as storms rated Category 3, 4 or 5, with sustained winds at or above 111 miles per hour.
The emphasis at the briefing was blunt: preparation can’t be built on the number of storms. Ken Graham. director of the National Weather Service. told the public. “Don’t let words like ‘below average …’ change the way you’re prepared.” He added that even in “below average” years. even if there are two storms. “they could be big ones.” The point. he said. is that the season’s danger is not just about count—it’s about where storms make landfall.
The science behind the forecast starts with a climate pattern NOAA expects to return. NOAA said the reason the Atlantic number of storms is lower is the expected return of El Niño. a cyclic climate event that can influence wind patterns across the globe. El Niño tends to add more “vertical wind shear” over the Atlantic—differences in wind speed between lower and higher levels of the atmosphere—which makes it harder for hurricanes to form.
But the forecast didn’t stop at the Atlantic. Jacobs said the Pacific is a different story: El Niño usually reduces vertical wind shear there. making hurricane formation easier. NOAA predicts a 70 percent chance of “above normal” activity in the central and eastern Pacific. including 15 to 22 named storms in the eastern Pacific and between five and nine major hurricanes.
Underneath the El Niño mechanics sits another driver that NOAA officials didn’t let disappear into the background. Warmer ocean temperatures fuel hurricanes and can make them more intense. A 2024 analysis estimated that climate change was responsible for boosting wind speeds of all of the Atlantic hurricanes that season. including pushing Hurricanes Milton and Beryl into Category 5 storms.
The Atlantic outlook isn’t without precedent, either. Matt Rosencrans, a NOAA hurricane forecaster, said the last time NOAA predicted a below normal season was 2015.
Between the probabilities and the warnings, a single message came through clearly: the season may be quieter in the Atlantic in 2026, but the threat still has to be treated like it can arrive suddenly, and strong storms can still find their way to the places people call home.
NOAA Atlantic hurricane season 2026 El Niño vertical wind shear major hurricanes Category 3 4 5 National Weather Service climate change eastern Pacific hurricanes hurricane forecast
So like, fewer storms… but still danger? Cool cool.
They say below normal but NOAA always says that and then everyone acts surprised when it’s a mess. Also El Niño again… so is it gonna be like hotter or just more hurricanes? I’m confused.
Wait, “major hurricanes” is category 3-5 right? But they’re saying only 1 to 3 major ones… that’s not small though. I swear people get tricked by the “below average” wording like oh it’ll be fine, then a Cat 3 hits somewhere and everyone’s like why didn’t we prepare.
El Niño returning sounds like the reason but then they still won’t give straight answers. Like 55 percent below normal, 35 near normal, 10 above normal… that adds up but what does that even mean for my zip code? They talk about named storms 8 to 14 and I’m thinking that means 8 to 14 hurricanes? Then again they said preparation shouldn’t change which is kinda pointless if they say fewer. Idk I just keep hearing “major” and getting worried.