NOAA tracks two Pacific storm chances as Atlantic begins

second possible – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is monitoring two separate low-pressure areas in the eastern Pacific that could develop into named tropical storms later this week. The alerts come just as the Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1—though no tropic

For the second time in days, the eastern Pacific has turned into a waiting room. On the morning of May 31. the National Hurricane Center said forecasters are monitoring a second possible tropical storm—one that could eventually churn far from shore. but still carry rain and wind risks for parts of Mexico and other interests as the season swings into motion.

The latest update points to an area of low pressure that could form late this week or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. The hurricane center said environmental conditions appear favorable for some development as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph. The forecast gives it a 20% chance of tropical development within the next week.

AccuWeather said the system could bring heavy rain and wind to the southern coast of Mexico.

Not far away in the forecast, a second weather disturbance is drawing attention—this one farther out to sea. About 1. 000 miles west of Central America. the hurricane center said a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next few days well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The center said conditions look conducive for additional development. with a tropical depression likely to form during the middle part of the week while moving westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western portion of the East Pacific. For this system, the hurricane center is assigning an 80% chance of development within the next seven days.

AccuWeather’s take on the farther-out system is that it is expected to drift west and will likely pose little concern beyond shipping interests. It also said chances are it would fade before reaching Hawaii later in the month.

The two-track setup matters because the naming rules don’t wait for hopes or best-case scenarios. Whichever system becomes a tropical storm first will be named Amanda—the first name on the Pacific storm list for 2026.

Pacific storms rarely threaten land, but the forecast still keeps a foot on the gas. The hurricane center notes that roughly 85% to 90% of storms that form in the Pacific never threaten land and often spin out harmlessly over open water. Even so, they can occasionally impact Hawaii, the west coast of Mexico, or the Southwest U.S. with heavy flooding and rainfall.

That contrast—most storms stay offshore, but the rare ones don’t—is part of the reason NOAA urges coastal residents to know their hurricane risk. When the tropics begin to stir, the uncertainty isn’t just academic. It’s about planning for what could arrive, not what usually doesn’t.

As the eastern Pacific watches these two chances, the Atlantic schedule is already ticking. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1. For now. the hurricane center is offering a degree of restraint: it said tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.

NOAA National Hurricane Center tropical storm eastern Pacific hurricane season Mexico coast shipping interests Hawaii Amanda 2026 Atlantic hurricane season June 1