NOAA June forecast signals hotter summer, tougher drought risks

NOAA June – A three-month outlook released June 18 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center points to above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S. as summer begins June 21—while precipitation is largely steady in many areas, leaving parts of the West and the Southwest exp

By the time summer officially starts on June 21, the weather in many parts of the U.S. is already pointing in the same direction: hotter-than-usual conditions.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its three-month forecast on June 18. warning of a widespread likelihood that temperatures will reach above the historical average for the majority of the country. In the forecast window of July. August and September. Oregon and Washington were identified as having the highest probability of exceeding “normal” temperatures.

Illinois and parts of Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri are the exceptions. NOAA’s forecast places those states at approximately a 30% probability of being below the historical average temperature, using a baseline built from data spanning 1991 to 2020.

National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Handel put it plainly: “What we’re seeing for the July, August, September time period is that for the majority of the country the trend has been warmer.”

Heat is only part of the concern. NOAA’s outlook for precipitation over the next three months is expected to show little change compared with historical averages for most of the United States.

But in the drought-and-fire corridor, the details shift. Southern California, Utah and Arizona, along with parts of Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico, face an “above average” precipitation forecast—conditions that could matter in places already stretched by drought.

Those wetter signals aren’t coming from just one source. Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, said the predicted above-average rainfall in those states is tied to monsoon moisture and “one to two east Pacific tropical storms.”

Even with some regions looking wetter, other risks remain clearly on the table. AccuWeather’s long-range forecast identified a higher-than-average fire risk throughout the fall season in the Northwest, where Merrill said conditions are both warmer and drier than average.

In the northern Rockies, the forecast leans harsher on the drought. Merrill said the drought is expected to intensify across that region. He also warned that dry thunderstorms could spark wildfires early in the monsoon season in the Southwest.

The forecast’s sharpest tension comes from how quickly conditions can swing. As increased moisture moves in from late July into August, Merrill said the wildfire threat can flip toward flooding.

“The southwest can see a big target that’s the summer going from very dry, very hot, with a wildfire risk to all of a sudden having episodes of flooding,” he said. “We also see an elevated flooding risk from northern Texas all the way into the Midwest.”

Taken together. NOAA’s temperature signal—above-normal heat across most of the country—meets a precipitation picture that stays near average for many places. while a select set of Western and Southwest areas lean wetter. That mix still leaves multiple ways for damage to land: lingering heat stress in broad areas. wildfire leverage in droughtier pockets. and the possibility of abrupt flooding once monsoon moisture and tropical moisture line up.

For households planning ahead. the practical takeaway is uncomfortable but direct: summer is arriving with a forecast built for warmer days across a wide swath of the U.S. and wildfire and flooding risks are being framed as seasonal threats that can intensify—or reverse course—within the same broader hot weather pattern.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center summer 2026 forecast above-normal temperatures drought risk wildfire risk monsoon moisture tropical storms flooding risk National Weather Service AccuWeather