NOAA El – With NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center preparing to officially declare El Niño by June 11, scientists are watching record-warm Pacific waters that could push 2026 toward an all-time global temperature high—and tilt U.S. winter and hurricane risk patterns.
For many people, El Niño still sounds like a headline term. But this week, U.S. climate scientists are approaching a moment that turns predictions into official weather language.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is expected to officially declare that an El Niño is underway this Thursday, June 11. The timing matters because previous El Niño forecasts have repeatedly raised alarms worldwide—driving far-reaching heat and shaping the chances of weather extremes. including hurricanes. over the months that follow.
El Niño itself is a natural climate pattern defined by warmer-than-average surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Its Spanish name—meaning Little Boy. or Christ Child—dates back centuries to when fishermen off the coast of South America noticed unusually warm Pacific waters around Christmas in the 1600s.
Scientists track the full cycle as El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. In that cycle, the region along the equator in the tropical Pacific shifts between warmer conditions (El Niño) and cooler-than-average ocean water (La Niña).
By early June, the data pushing toward an El Niño declaration looked unusually dramatic. Temperatures in the El Niño region of the North Pacific have soared to a record high for the date. according to the Climate Reanalyzer at the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute. Average water temperatures in the region warmed almost a full degree Fahrenheit between May 31 and June 5. and were nearly three degrees warmer than their 30-year normal.
Computer models differ on how warm the region could get by the end of the year. But they point to more warming—suggesting the water could warm by more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit.
On June 6, Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, posted on X that essentially every model predicts El Niño is coming. Some scenarios suggest a moderate event, while others point to something strong or very strong. Rohde also said a “record-smashing event” is unlikely.
The buzz around a possible “Super” or “Godzilla” event reflects that uncertainty. even if the scientific language isn’t matching the hype. “Super” is a phrase used by some scientists and headline writers for sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that rise to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average for several months. even though NOAA does not officially define a “super” El Niño category. Another expert. climate scientist Daniel Swain. posted on X on June 6 after reviewing the latest model data that. “All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant. if not strong to very strong. El Niño event.”.
The most intense El Niño-like events don’t show up often. Since 1950, only four “Super” events have occurred, according to the Weather Channel, with the most recent happening between 2015 and 2016.
What makes the next forecast rounds so consequential is the way El Niño heat moves through the atmosphere. NOAA says El Niño raises worldwide air temperatures by releasing heat stored in the Pacific Ocean into the air. temporarily increasing the Earth’s average temperature on top of long-term climate warming.
That is one reason experts are watching 2026 closely. They say 2026 global temperature could reach an all-time record high thanks to El Niño’s impact.
The ENSO cycle is also the primary factor used by government scientists when announcing winter weather forecasts. because it mainly influences the colder months. During an El Niño winter. the southern third of the United States typically sees wetter-than-average conditions. while the northern third has enhanced chances of below-normal precipitation. according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Temperatures tend to shift warmer across much of the country. Matthew Rosencrans. NOAA’s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster. said in an e-mail: “El Niño winters are typically warmer across the continental U.S. especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes. The warmth can extend farther down the West Coast and into the Southeast, but those signals are much less certain.”.
El Niño’s reach doesn’t stop with winter. In summer and fall, it can also affect U.S. rainfall patterns, according to AccuWeather. For parts of the West that have been very dry, that possibility could offer a rare bright spot.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill said El Niño patterns could bring more rain than normal to the Colorado Basin. He added that any uptick would not be enough to quench the ongoing drought, but would be “a step in the right direction.”
Jason Nicholls, also an AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said the early start to El Niño can lead to increased moisture from the southern Plains to the East Coast during summer and fall.
Then there is the question households in coastal regions think about long before the first storm forms: hurricanes. El Niño can reshape hurricane risk in both the Atlantic and the Pacific basins.
In the Atlantic. associate scientist Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami said in an email: “Typically. El Niño leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific. which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic. This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean.”.
In the eastern Pacific, the pattern can flip. Rosencrans said El Niño years are typically associated with more activity in the eastern Pacific.
The urgency isn’t only coming from NOAA. The United Nations’ weather arm—World Meteorological Organization (WMO)—recently warned that there is an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event starting this summer. Beyond this summer, WMO said probabilities for El Niño to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. The agency added that uncertainty remains about El Niño’s peak strength and timing. but most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate—and possibly strong.
“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. ” United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement. “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”.
Taken together, the record-warm Pacific temperatures, the looming NOAA decision on June 11, and the high downstream probabilities mean the coming months may bring a cascade of changes—some visible in forecasts for winter precipitation and heat, others showing up in shifting hurricane risk.
For now, the forecast clock is ticking toward an official declaration. And for a warming world already primed for extremes, the difference between “possible” and “underway” can feel less like wording—and more like warning.
El Niño NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO hurricane risk 2026 temperatures WMO Atlantic hurricanes eastern Pacific La Niña