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Nevada’s governor primary turns on who can lead

Nevada governor – Nevada voters head to the polls Tuesday in a high-stakes state primary that could shape the path toward 2028. Gov. Joe Lombardo faces six Republican challengers, while Democrats try to reclaim the governor’s seat with a field that includes Attorney General Aar

By the time the first results start to trickle in Tuesday night, the real test won’t just be numbers on a screen. In Nevada, it will be whether voters choose a governor they believe can carry a key swing state—and do it fast, before the story passes to someone else.

Gov. Joe Lombardo will face six Republican challengers in the state’s governor primary on Tuesday. Democrats are also competing for their party’s nomination to reclaim the seat in November. with six candidates running. including state Attorney General Aaron Ford and Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill.

The governor’s race could matter well beyond Nevada’s borders. The winner of the governor’s mansion in the key swing state could play a pivotal role in the 2028 presidential campaign, assuming Nevada keeps its slot as the first-in-the-West nominating contest for both parties.

Lombardo’s position in the race is rooted in a rare kind of victory. He was elected in 2022 after defeating an incumbent governor—one of the few such defeats in the country that year. He edged Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak by 1.5 percentage points.

With no presidential or U.S. Senate race on the ballot in Nevada this cycle, the gubernatorial contest has become the main driver of campaign ad spending in the state. Dark-money groups are spending as well, raising and spending unlimited amounts and not being required to disclose their donors.

At the same time. the primary ballot is packed with other races that can reshape political power and messaging heading into November. Among the U.S. House races, Mark Amodei of the 2nd District—a Republican—will not seek an eighth full term. The seat is not expected to be particularly competitive in November. Amodei won reelection in 2024 with 55% of the vote. and Donald Trump carried the district in the presidential race with about 56% of the vote.

That backdrop makes Tuesday’s Republican primary more consequential. Former state Sen. James Settelmeyer will compete against financial adviser and small business owner David Flippo, along with 11 others. Trump has endorsed Flippo.

On the Democratic side, the races for the seats held by Democratic U.S. Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford are expected to be more competitive. All three Democratic incumbents are seeking reelection, but only Horsford in the 4th District faces no primary opposition.

Nevada’s state Legislature is also on the ballot. About half of Nevada’s 21 state Senate seats and all 42 state House seats are up for election this year. Democrats hold both chambers.

In Henderson, the second largest city in Nevada, voters will decide a mayoral election in a nonpartisan contest. Mayor Michelle Romero is seeking a second term against four challengers, including former Henderson police Chief Hollie Chadwick. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote. the top two finishers will compete in a runoff scheduled for the November general election.

The voting will be shaped by Nevada’s county math. Clark County. home to both Las Vegas and Henderson. is the state’s most populous county and routinely contributes about 69% of the total vote in statewide contests. Washoe County, home to Reno, has the second-highest population and usually contributes about 18% of the statewide vote. Both counties are key to watch in Republican and Democratic statewide primaries.

As votes are tallied, there are practical rules that will determine when results can be called. Polls are scheduled to close at 7 p.m. PT, which is 10 p.m. ET, but Nevada law requires polls to stay open until all voters in line by poll closing time have cast their ballots.

Who gets to vote is strict in party primaries. Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Any eligible voter. however. may register to vote or change party affiliation at the polls on Election Day or during early voting.

Nevada’s voter registration numbers show a deep bench for both parties. As of June 1, there were about 670,000 registered Democrats and about 659,000 registered Republicans. About 162,000 voters were registered with other parties, while 965,000 voters were not registered with any party.

Still, the primary turnout is a separate figure. About 157,000 Democratic primary votes and about 171,350 Republican primary votes were cast in Nevada’s 2024 primaries for U.S. Senate.

How people cast ballots also matters for how quickly the night can become clear. Mail ballots comprised about 65% of the vote in the 2024 state primary and about 57% in the 2022 state primary. In-person early voting comprised about 17% in the 2024 primary and about 22% in the 2022 primary.

As of Friday, about 246,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election—about 42% from Democrats, about 42% from Republicans, and the remainder from other voters.

County reporting routines will shape the timing of early updates. Nevada’s 17 counties vary in how they release results from early in-person and mail voting. Most counties tend to release all or nearly all of their early in-person voting results in the first update of the night. while less than half tend to release mail voting results in the first update. In both Clark and Washoe counties. the first vote update of the night tends to include all early in-person voting results and partial mail voting results. before any in-person Election Day results are released.

In past cycles, Nevada’s pace has depended on officials confirming that voting has concluded in every county. In the 2024 state primaries, the Associated Press first reported results at 11:04 p.m. ET—more than an hour after the scheduled poll closing time—because the state does not release any votes until voting concludes in every county. The last vote update of the night was at 11:55 p.m. ET in the Republican primary, with about 94% of total votes counted, and at 2:28 a.m. ET in the Democratic primary, with about 85% of total votes counted.

When it comes to declaring winners, the Associated Press does not make projections. It will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called. coverage will continue for any newsworthy developments such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. with clear explanation that a winner has not yet been declared.

Recounts work differently in Nevada as well. Recounts are not automatic, but a candidate may request and pay for one regardless of the vote margin. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Even after Tuesday’s results, there is still time before voters return to the ballot. As of Tuesday, there will be 147 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

The question for Nevada tonight is simple, even if the process is not: who can win in the kind of primary that sets up everything that follows—messaging, money, and the story candidates tell themselves as they head toward November.

Nevada primary Joe Lombardo Aaron Ford Alexis Hill governor primary Henderson mayoral election Mark Amodei James Settelmeyer David Flippo dark money vote counting Nevada

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