NECEC’s early hydropower results leave New England waiting

NECEC’s early – After nearly six months of carrying Canadian power into Maine, the New England Clean Energy Connect line (NECEC) is delivering hydropower at a pace that is only marginally higher—and, at times, sends no power at all—fueling doubts that it will quickly accelera

In the months since the New England Clean Energy Connect line began carrying electricity from Canada into Maine in January, the promise felt close enough to touch. Supporters framed NECEC as a leap forward for renewable power.

But after nearly six months of operations, the early numbers are starting to pressure that promise. Energy flow into New England is up just marginally. There have been roughly 27 days when no power at all traveled along the new line.

Joseph LaRusso, manager of the Clean Grid Program at climate nonprofit Acadia Center, put it plainly: “What we’ve seen so far is not what some people expected to see.”

If current trends continue, New England will receive less hydropower this year over two transmission lines than it did over just one line in 2023 and previous years.

Adding to the uncertainty is what’s happening elsewhere in the same power ecosystem. The Champlain Hudson Power Express, a transmission line that started sending electricity from Quebec into New York City this month, could further strain the supply of Canadian hydropower.

For a project that took years to overcome opposition and legal hurdles, that’s a difficult start—especially in a region where clean energy plans depend on access to reliable hydropower and the ability to shift away from fossil fuels.

NECEC, and the fight that delayed it

NECEC traces its roots to a 2016 Massachusetts law that required the state to procure 1.6 gigawatts of offshore wind power and another 1.2 gigawatts of additional renewable energy. The strategy was to contract with state-owned Canadian power supplier Hydro-Québec to tap the region’s hydropower and build a new transmission line to carry that electricity south.

The first proposal was a 192-mile project through New Hampshire. It was abandoned in 2019 after public outcry about impacts on the state’s forests.

The transmission line through Maine faced similar controversy. In 2021, a statewide referendum vote put the project on hold until 2023, when a jury ruled the development could be restarted.

Two and a half years later, NECEC came online and began carrying the first electrons into New England.

In Massachusetts, leaders and advocates celebrated the project as a major win. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, a Democrat, and climate advocates said it would help meet renewable energy goals and save residents money on their utility bills.

Massachusetts contracted with Hydro-Québec for 9.55 terawatt-hours of hydropower per year—roughly 20 percent of the state’s annual electricity demand.

But the line’s early performance has been anything but seamless. NECEC was completely inactive for several spans—ranging from a half day on April 28 to nearly two weeks at the end of May and beginning of June. Hydro-Québec spokesperson Lynn St-Laurent said the most recent outage was due to “technical difficulties. ” adding in a written statement. “Once repairs were completed. deliveries resumed.” She also said. “With any new transmission infrastructure. a period of optimization and fine-tuning is to be expected.”.

Through the end of April, Hydro-Québec exported about 2.4 terawatt-hours of power on the transmission line.

Why skeptics say NECEC isn’t adding net renewable supply

For some, the question isn’t whether electricity can move across the line—it’s whether NECEC is delivering enough additional hydropower to change the region’s supply totals.

Before NECEC. New England already imported significant hydropower over a transmission line known as Phase 2. running from Quebec into central Massachusetts. In 2019. the year Massachusetts regulators approved contracts between utilities and Hydro-Québec. more than 12 terawatt-hours traveled onto the New England grid over that line.

But starting in 2023, Hydro-Québec began selling less energy to New England over Phase 2. For nearly three weeks in early 2025, exports ceased entirely. Through the end of April this year, just over half a terawatt-hour had come south over that line.

That shift makes NECEC look—on paper—like it may be functioning less as a major supply expansion and more as a new route for power.

Dan Dolan. president of the New England Power Generators Association. said. “We’re not seeing much net new flows coming from our neighbors.” He added. “We are running pretty close to the net energy flows we had in 2025. which were the lowest amount of imports that New England has ever gotten from Quebec.”.

There’s also a rarely seen reversal in the direction of flows. Quebec has started importing power over the Phase 2 line, a rare occurrence before 2025. In the first four months of this year, more than 500 gigawatt-hours traveled into Canada on the line.

Because New England’s electricity supply relies heavily on natural gas generation, the region can end up burning fossil fuels to ship energy north even while it receives hydropower for its own use.

Dolan described what that means for operations on the ground: “We’re seeing a heavier natural gas burn on the rest of the generation fleet than I think many of those states had assumed going into this year.”

The drought behind the squeeze

A large part of the slowdown is being tied to drought conditions that have lingered in Quebec for the past few years.

Gilbert Bennett. a senior adviser for WaterPower Canada. a hydropower trade group. said that during wetter periods hydropower firms use large reservoirs to store water to help them ride out drier times. As generators wait for rainier days, their first obligation is to supply domestic customers. That means Hydro-Québec may need to import electricity over the Phase 2 line at times to offset hydropower it is contractually obliged to send to Massachusetts over NECEC.

St-Laurent said, “Electricity flows between Québec and New England are dynamic and vary continuously based on market conditions and system needs on both sides of the border.”

LaRusso said Massachusetts customers shouldn’t be at risk financially. He pointed to provisions in the Massachusetts contract with Hydro-Québec requiring the Canadian company to pay financial penalties if it fails to deliver according to its contract.

“To the extent that imports are curtailed, Hydro-Québec is liable to make the electric utilities whole for the cost of replacement power,” LaRusso said.

What NECEC can do—when conditions line up

While skepticism focuses on net additions so far, some see moments where NECEC has demonstrated its value.

LaRusso said NECEC has at times helped New England achieve a cleaner supply. He pointed to May 16. describing a sunny day when solar power reduced demand on the grid and NECEC was operating “going full tilt.” During that period. he said. natural gas plants were running at low levels. and most of the power was heading to New York. For a short time, he said, nonfossil fuel resources were enough to meet all regional power needs.

“Hypothetically, [grid operator] ISO New England could’ve turned off its gas generators,” LaRusso said. “It really gets you thinking of the resources available and how they could be managed and shared in the future.”

Bennett argued that the longer-term outlook could still improve. He said climate change is forecast to create wetter conditions in Quebec. He also pointed to investments in additional hydropower facilities and onshore wind in the region. suggesting that the years ahead will bring more renewable resources to share with Canada’s southern neighbors.

“Over the long term, we see a bright future,” Bennett said.

The early lesson, for now, is that transmitting clean power is only part of the story. Drought, shifting market needs, and how much Canada can actually spare all determine what arrives—and when. For New England’s energy transition. NECEC’s promise may depend as much on weather and system balancing as on engineering and political resolve.

NECEC hydropower Hydro-Québec New England Clean Energy Connect Acadia Center ISO New England drought in Quebec Champlain Hudson Power Express natural gas generation renewable energy transmission