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Nancy Guthrie case – How long could it be before she’s declared dead?

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As Nancy Guthrie’s status as a missing person surpasses the six-month mark, many are wondering what the future of the investigation will look like.

The 84-year-old mother of “Today” anchor Savannah Guthrie entered her home in Tucson, Arizona, just before 10 p.m. on Jan. 31 and was never seen again. Her family reported her missing the next day, and authorities have labeled the case a suspected kidnapping for ransom.

Former detective and sheriff Mike Toth, now a private investigator after years of experience in law enforcement, tells USA TODAY the Nancy Guthrie case may never be closed.

“If they’ve still got evidence and leads to follow, they’re going to continue to run those down,” he says. “The case wouldn’t grow cold until there’s just no leads whatsoever and they’ve run out of ideas. Then they have to wait until something else comes up, and sometimes that takes years before another piece of evidence comes or a witness comes forward.”

On Feb. 2, one day after Guthrie disappeared, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos declared her house a “crime scene.” But on Feb. 3, Clara Migoya and Richard Ruelas, reporters for The Arizona Republic – part of the USA TODAY Network – were able to walk up the driveway and witnessed dried blood droplets on the tiles at the front entrance of the home.

Ruelas and Migoya reported there was no yellow tape surrounding the property, which authorities had “turned over” to Guthrie’s family. They also said there was an Amazon package addressed to Guthrie on the porch.

Toth notes that the first 48 to 72 hours of a missing persons investigation is an “extremely important” time to gather evidence before the odds of solving the case significantly drop. In this case, he says, “some things weren’t done probably the way it should have been done.”

The FBI also stepped in, later uncovering a key piece of evidence: footage of a masked, armed person appearing to tamper with Guthrie’s front doorbell camera the night she vanished. “What’s uncommon is where all the FBI resources came in, like [how] they did there,” Toth says.

Though the FBI is “always willing to help,” he says, the agency’s involvement from so early on allowed “expert” assistance not all cases have at that stage in an investigation.

“They have resources that other agencies don’t have,” Toth says. “Their evidence law lab is the best in the world. I mean, they get other countries asking them to come investigate stuff and process evidence.”

But FBI Director Kash Patel views things differently. He told Fox News Digital July 23 that delays in the agency’s involvement may have resulted in the loss of potentially valuable doorbell camera footage.

Then there were the ransom notes. Within the first week, ransom notes were sent out to media outlets. One from Feb. 6, reported by NBC News, ABC News and CBS News, said Guthrie was dead.

Savannah made numerous videos on her social media speaking directly to the potential abductor, even offering to pay and acknowledging her mother may no longer be alive. Her latest was shared on July 27, in which she said her family was “in a nightmare that will not end.” Still, no suspects were identified.

On June 26, TMZ reported it had received a third ransom letter from someone claiming two people are responsible for Guthrie’s kidnapping and there is video of the “main guy” and Guthrie on a phone in a “secure location.” The letter offered the phone’s password in exchange for Bitcoin payment to an address associated with someone who sent one of the previous ransom notes.

Though Nanos expressed skepticism about the notes, the FBI office in Phoenix said in an update July 1 that they have not fully dismissed their validity.

“Some have been deemed to be extortion attempts without legitimacy. Other ransom demands may potentially be legitimate and are still being investigated as such,” the statement read. “This case continues to be investigated as a kidnapping for ransom case.”

Toth says ransom requests are rarely real, but the FBI’s messaging may have other motives.

“They’ll say things to get the people to lower their guard,” he says. “I still think, personally, without knowing all the evidence, just with my experience, there is a high chance it is somebody that knew her. They clearly knew her movements, knew everything about her [routine]. How close to her knowing her, I don’t know.”

Though the investigation seems to have slowed, Toth notes there might be developments authorities haven’t yet publicized. In fact, withholding certain facts is a common tactic investigators use to try to narrow the likelihood of “fake people coming forward.”

“You’d be shocked how many people admit to murder that didn’t do the murder,” he says. “I mean, it’s crazy. It happens all the time.”

When someone vanishes without a trace, Toth says, they are typically able to be declared legally dead after seven years. When there is evidence of a crime, however, there is no true timeline for when that step can or should be taken.

“If the investigators can prove to a judge that there’s strong evidence of death, like in this, where they’ve got that blood, her pacemaker’s not registering anymore, they could possibly get her ruled deceased,” Toth says. “Now the family might argue against that, and there may be reasons why they don’t want it. Maybe they’re holding out hope that she is alive. But it doesn’t necessarily have to take the seven years.

“My guess is, behind the scenes and quietly, they probably are assuming she’s deceased.”

If authorities do end up identifying a suspect, for example the person in the doorbell camera footage, Toth notes they would not necessarily need to uncover Guthrie’s remains to prosecute a murder case.

“The case would always be open, and if they’ve got enough evidence to go after the [person], and they’re able to prove that that’s the [person] at the door, that’s circumstantial that he’s probably the one that killed her,” Toth says. “So then it falls to law enforcement to then bring it to the county attorney or district attorney and pitch it to them. A lot of people have been convicted just on circumstantial evidence.”

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