A new Farm Bureau survey finds many US farmers can’t buy all needed fertilizer this year, raising fears for yields, planting decisions, and food prices.
Rising fertilizer prices are colliding with tight farm budgets, and a new survey suggests the squeeze is already reshaping how American growers plan for spring.
The American Farm Bureau Federation survey indicates that as many as 70% of U.S.. farmers and ranchers cannot afford to purchase all the fertilizer they need this year.. For many producers. fertilizer isn’t a discretionary input—it’s central to crop growth and yield. especially for crops dependent on nitrogen.. When geopolitical shocks lift global fertilizer costs, the bill arrives fast, and the farming calendar doesn’t wait.
A large share of the cost pressure is tied to the way fertilizer trades globally.. Fertilizer is bought and sold across borders like other commodities. and a meaningful portion typically moves through sea lanes connected to the Strait of Hormuz.. When disruptions hit that corridor, prices can jump quickly, with some fertilizer categories rising sharply in a matter of weeks.. Even when fertilizer is produced domestically, price-setting is influenced by global supply and shipping dynamics.
Fertilizer affordability varies sharply by region and planning
The survey also highlights that the pain isn’t evenly distributed.. Farmers who pre-booked fertilizer before the war began were more likely to have locked in lower prices. while those who hadn’t faced a higher-cost scramble once prices spiked.. Because planting timing differs across regions and crop types, the hardship can land unevenly—even within the same state.
Midwestern growers reported the highest rate of pre-booking, with 67% saying they had secured all needed fertilizer before prices surged.. That matters because much of the Midwest’s farm economy is anchored in crops that rely heavily on nitrogen-based fertilizers. including corn. which plays a major role in U.S.. food and feed supply chains.. By contrast. the survey found far lower pre-booking shares in other regions: 19% in the South. 30% in the Northeast. and 31% in the West.
Those differences help explain why some areas are reporting sharper affordability problems.. When pre-booking is low, more farmers are exposed to price spikes at the exact time they need inputs.. The result is not just higher costs—it’s less flexibility to adjust quantities. switch plans. or delay purchases without risking yield outcomes.
Smaller farms face the steepest margins
The survey points to another dividing line: farm size.. Smaller operations. which often run on slimmer margins and sometimes even on losses before major input costs hit. were less likely to have pre-booked fertilizer.. That combination—lower ability to lock in prices early and thinner financial buffers—can make fertilizer price spikes disproportionately damaging.
For many family farms, fertilizer is also closely tied to borrowing decisions and cash-flow timing.. If costs rise and the margin for error shrinks. the immediate question becomes whether to buy the full amount needed for optimal production or to reduce application rates. accept weaker crop performance. or scale back acreage.. Those choices don’t only affect a single harvest; they can influence next season’s finances and the willingness—and ability—to invest again.
Crop exposure is uneven, too
The fertilizer squeeze also varies by crop.. Producers growing soybean, barley, corn, and wheat were more likely to have pre-booked fertilizer, while cotton and peanut growers lagged.. That pattern suggests that affordability impacts may spread unevenly across the U.S.. agricultural portfolio, depending on each crop’s fertilizer profile, regional demand, and contracting behavior.
Some of the starkest affordability signals came from rice. cotton. and peanut producers. where more than 80% said they could not afford all the fertilizer they need this spring.. These figures matter because they point to higher risk of under-application or disrupted production plans for crops with strong demand in domestic and global markets.. Even if price spikes do not translate into identical impacts across all farms. the overall picture is of widespread stress on production capacity.
A broader financial hit to farm household budgets
Beyond fertilizer itself, the survey captures a wider deterioration in financial conditions.. Nearly all surveyed farmers—94%—said their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same since last year. while only 6% reported improvement.. In practical terms, that means many producers are already working without significant headroom.
This context is crucial for understanding why the current fertilizer affordability issue is more than a pricing story.. When costs rise faster than returns. the effect can compound across the entire operating cycle—fuel purchases. labor planning. equipment maintenance. and repayment schedules.. Even if yields eventually normalize, financial strain can still linger through debt servicing and reduced ability to invest.
What it could mean for food prices and planting decisions
The immediate farm-level concern is straightforward: without enough fertilizer, yields can fall.. Lower yields can push food and feed supply tighter, which may raise prices downstream.. However. how strongly fertilizer affordability constraints will affect consumer prices is not a simple equation. because outcomes depend on how many acres are planted. whether farmers reduce application rates. and how crop conditions evolve.
Still. there are early signals that growers are thinking in longer horizons—worrying that the shock could echo beyond a single season.. When input affordability becomes a recurring risk. the incentives to lock in supplies early increase. but that also means the next time prices spike. the group that is least able to pre-book will likely experience the hardest hit again.
For Misryoum readers, the key takeaway is that global fertilizer pricing shocks are increasingly turning into local budget crises.. The survey doesn’t just describe a difficult spring for farmers—it suggests a broader vulnerability in the supply chain for essential agricultural inputs. with the potential to ripple into production decisions and. eventually. food costs.
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