Alani Bankhead, an Air Force veteran, is projected to win Montana’s Democratic Senate primary Tuesday night, a result Democrats have been watching for as they weigh whether another candidate, independent Seth Bodnar, can consolidate support ahead of the genera
By Tuesday night, Montana Democrats were watching the clock and the ballots for a very specific kind of outcome. Alani Bankhead—an Air Force veteran—is projected to win the state’s Democratic Senate primary. a result many Democrats were hoping for even if they know she is unlikely to beat the GOP nominee in November.
What matters more than Bankhead’s general-election prospects is what could happen next inside the Democratic side of the race—because Bodnar’s path runs through a possible exit by the primary winner. Former Green Beret and University of Montana President Seth Bodnar. running as an independent for the seat. needs the Democratic nominee to drop out so he can consolidate the vote against the GOP nominee. former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme.
Democrats across the state, including former Sen. Jon Tester, have backed Bodnar in the lead-up to the primary. The strategy is clear in the way the candidates have been positioned: Democrats want a unified front. and Bodnar’s candidacy is designed to pull persuadable voters without the friction of competing Democratic ballots.
It isn’t certain that Bankhead will exit the race. But her main competition in the Democratic primary—former state legislator Reilly Neill—had pledged to stay in the race. That pledge. and the way the contest has been managed. fed into how both parties are trying to shape the primary outcome and who ultimately becomes the most viable vehicle for anti-Republican gains.
The fight over Montana’s primary has been unusually explicit. A GOP group aligned with retiring Sen. Steve Daines sent out mailers highlighting Neill’s liberal positions in an effort to elevate her with primary voters. Democrats, for their part, tried to boost Bankhead.
Montana’s political landscape is why this is so consequential. The state is solidly red—Trump won it by roughly 20 percentage points in 2024—but it also has a relatively high number of persuadable voters. That’s why Democrats are already looking past the primary result and toward the general election’s mood.
Their hope is that Bodnar—who has raised $2 million and has staked out moderate positions—can ride a potential anti-Trump wave election even from the independent line. For that plan to work, though, the Democratic side has to settle into something more unified than a split field.
The question sitting underneath Tuesday’s projection is simple. and it carries the weight of an entire party’s scheduling: will the Democratic primary winner step aside. turning a messy race into a clearer lane for Bodnar. or will Montana Democrats stay divided as they head toward November and the chance to try—again—to flip a Senate seat in a state that hasn’t made it easy?.
Montana Senate race Alani Bankhead Seth Bodnar Jon Tester Reilly Neill Kurt Alme Steve Daines Montana Democratic primary Montana independent candidate Air Force veteran Green Beret
So they want the Dem to drop out? Sounds like rigging to me.
I’m confused… Bankhead is winning the Dem primary but they’re still talking about Seth Bodnar like he can swoop in. Doesn’t seem allowed or whatever?
Wait, Seth Bodnar can only win if the Democratic nominee exits?? That’s like the opposite of democracy. Also Jon Tester backing it means it’s probably a plan.
Montana politics is wild. They say she’s unlikely to beat the GOP guy anyway, but then everyone’s acting like this primary is everything. If Reilly Neill stays in, does that help the Republicans by splitting votes? I heard Daines sent mailers so now I’m like… how is that not bias.