Met Office warns of 2056 days above 40°C

A red warning for extreme heat has hit parts of the UK, including London, as the Met Office forecasts a future where temperatures above 40°C could last nine consecutive days by 2056 and some locations reach 45°C. Climate experts say the country is not ready—wh

A red warning for extreme heat has been issued for various parts of the UK this week, including London—heat that’s already proving brutal not just in daytime peaks, but in the higher nighttime temperatures that leave people with fewer chances to cool down.

The fear isn’t only that records are being broken now. It’s the timescale. If this is what the air feels like today—so intense that even coping systems appear to buckle—then the question shifts from “how bad will it get?” to “how long until this becomes routine?”

The UK’s Met Office has now put a number to that worry. By 2056, it says there could be nine days in a row with temperatures above 40°C (104°F), with some places hitting 45°C (113°F). In just 30 years, the heat that alarms many people now could be replaced by a new baseline of extremes.

Those projections land harder when the present moment shows how uneven readiness is. The air conditioning in New Scientist’s office is failing to keep up with the heat as the warning period unfolds. and many people have to endure these conditions without air conditioning at all. Even efforts to plan for the future are colliding with the present: a meeting on adapting to extreme heat—part of London Climate Action Week—was cancelled because of the extreme weather.

Climate scientists have been sounding the same alarm for a long time: hotter heatwaves, worse droughts, more flooding and rising seas. And the pattern they describe is familiar—coverage spikes while the temperatures are newsworthy, then the weather cools, the agenda moves on, and preparation stalls.

The official view from the UK’s Climate Change Committee, which advises the UK government, is blunt. “Adaptation progress is either too slow, has stalled, or is heading in the wrong direction,” it said in a report last year.

The committee’s criticism connects directly to the heat people are living through now. Despite warnings, emissions are still rising, meaning the fundamental cause of the problem is worsening. It may not be rising as fast as it was. but the direction remains the same: the world is currently on course for average global surface temperatures to rise by between 2.1°C and 3.3°C by 2100. and possibly even more.

Those global averages can also hide the scale of what matters locally. Oceans warm more slowly than land. so average land temperatures are expected to rise much more than the overall numbers suggest. And for daily life, it’s extremes—not the averages—that determine suffering, illness, and disruption.

Projections for future extremes are already dire, and there are reasons to think reality could outpace them. Heatwaves are already more extreme than projected in some parts of the world. One explanation offered is that climate models may not capture how the dynamics of the jet streams change in a warmer world. Another is that regional models haven’t accounted for reductions in sunlight-blocking air pollution.

Once extremes intensify, the knock-on effects can become even harder to predict. The risks are not limited to the heat itself. Heatwaves that get more extreme could lead to mass deaths even among young people. There is also the ability to feed people—the basis of civilization—because there is growing evidence that global warming is already hitting food production. That pressure shows up in higher prices and in deforestation as farmers try to compensate.

When extreme weather hits multiple systems at once, economic shocks multiply. A 2024 study warned that the result could be the worst global financial crisis ever.

And then come the “wild cards,” scenarios that could accelerate change beyond what standard projections assume. One researcher discussed at a recent conference believes a slowdown of a crucial current system around 12. 000 years ago triggered extreme seasonality in places like Britain—sweltering summers. followed by winters where temperatures plunged tens of degrees below freezing. Today, the concern is different but related: the Amazon drying up, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shutting down.

For all of these risks—more intense heat. cascading impacts on health. food and economies—the gap between knowledge and action remains the central tension. The world is changing fast. and people are going to have to change just about every aspect of daily life to adapt: homes and offices. factories and schools. cars and trains. farms and gardens. and so on. But that shift is not happening at the pace climate science demands.

In the meantime, the heat continues. The warning is red. The nighttime temperatures stay high. And if you don’t feel terrified by this heatwave, the forecast asks you to imagine what comes next.

UK heatwave Met Office climate change extreme heat adaptation Climate Change Committee 40°C 45°C London jet streams food production drought flooding