Martín Pérez takes the mound for the Atlanta Braves as they push that weekend momentum against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:15 p.m. EDT at Truist Park. The matchup is packed with small sample size concerns and big lineup questions, with the Pirates’ Mitch Kelle
The Braves walked out of yesterday’s series with a win and momentum they can feel—just not a sweep of the reigning AL champion Toronto Blue Jays.
Now they’re turning the page quickly. Tonight, Atlanta takes that momentum into its weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, with first pitch set for 7:15 p.m. EDT at Truist Park in Atlanta. For the Braves, it’s not just another game. It’s a test of whether their rotation can hold up against a lineup that has been unexpectedly productive all season.
Pittsburgh’s season has stood out: the Pirates are sitting on a .540 record and a plus thirty-seven run differential. They built on what they already had—starting with Paul Skenes—and added some bats in the off-season, but there’s still no pretending that the current outcome was a given.
Martín Pérez will be the one to face the Pirates tonight. On paper, he’s been a bright spot for Atlanta this year, posting an ERA of 2.79. If his season ended today, it would be the best ERA of his career. His strikeout rate of 20.5 would also rank as the second-best mark he’s had in a season.
The pitch-to-pitch reality is more complicated than the stat line. Pérez’s fastball averages 90.0 MPH, which is described as unheard of in today’s game. Yet despite the velocity question, hitters haven’t gotten the results they’d want—his BABIP against is .226, and his strand rate is 84.4 percent.
The problem for Pérez is that the good numbers may not be telling the full story. Players are hitting the ball hard against him 42.0 percent of the time. compared to his career rate of 36.1 percent. a mark that ranks in the bottom 29.0 percent of MLB. When that’s combined with what his expected performance metrics suggest, his expected ERA (xERA) comes in at 4.34.
Even so, this isn’t just a story about Pérez’s season. It’s also about the Pirates’ specific matchup against him—and how little Atlanta knows from past at-bats.
Against the Pirates’ current roster, Pérez has only seen six of the hitters. None of them have more than nine at-bats against him. Brandon Lowe has nine at-bats against Pérez, and Pérez has struggled there, allowing a .333 average and .788 OPS.
Old friend Marcell Ozuna has seven at-bats, and he’s made it count with a .571 average and a 1.700 OPS.
For the Braves, this is where the night turns into a clock. Their offense is strong enough to swing games, but the path to controlling the series is about what happens after Pérez. The Pirates’ offense has scored only four fewer runs than the Braves, placing them fourth in MLB.
Atlanta is also preparing to face a pitcher who, in a sense, is hard to “break.” Pittsburgh will bring Mitch Keller to the mound. He’s not labeled elite, but he’s been a steady arm for years and has gotten the job done more often than the headlines would suggest.
Keller enters tonight with an ERA of 4.35. His xERA is 4.36—almost exactly the same—so the expectation is that he largely delivers what he looks like on the surface. The 2024 season follows the same pattern, with the exact same ERA and xERA.
The Braves have seen Keller plenty. Eight different players have faced him between eight and nineteen times. For Atlanta’s core, the results have mostly been strong.
Ronald Acuña has nineteen at-bats against Keller, with three home runs and a 1.371 OPS in that span. Matt Olson has a 1.371 OPS as well, matching Acuña’s mark in twelve at-bats against him. Austin Riley has an OPS of 1.055 in ten at-bats against Keller.
There are other wins in the numbers too. Mauricio Dubón has a .400 average and a .955 OPS in ten at-bats against Keller.
But not every Braves bat has looked comfortable. Michael Harris has struggled to a .500 OPS, and Ha-Seong Kim is hitless in eleven at-bats.
That sets up the core challenge for Atlanta tonight: they need to get to Pittsburgh’s bullpen quickly. The Pirates’ bullpen is described as a clear weakness, with an ERA of 4.29—good enough only for the bottom twelve teams in MLB.
If Pérez can get Atlanta through the early part of the lineup without letting the hard contact become damage, the Braves have a real chance to force the deeper innings into their own favor.
First pitch is at 7:15 EDT on Friday, June 5th, at Truist Park in Atlanta. The broadcast is 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan.
Martín Pérez Atlanta Braves Pittsburgh Pirates Mitch Keller Truist Park MLB weekend series Paul Skenes Ronald Acuña Matt Olson Austin Riley Marcell Ozuna
Martín Pérez 90 mph fastball is wild, like is that true or did they mess up the numbers?
Why do they keep saying “momentum” like it’s gonna magically carry over. Pirates played yesterday and Braves gonna forget everything by 7:15.
Small sample size concerns? So basically it doesn’t matter? lol. Also if Pérez has a 2.79 ERA then he should roast them, unless the Pirates are cheating again or something.
I saw “Paul Skenes” in there and instantly thought this is one of those games where Braves walk in cold. Plus Truist Park always feels like it’s windy half the time, so those stats don’t mean much to me.