bond market – After a sharp sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, Thursday brought a cooler finish: bonds pushed back higher even as MBS lagged, and Treasury yields held above 4.42% heading into the Juneteenth holiday market closure.
Markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, but Thursday felt like the last chance to keep a rough week from ending on an unstable note.
Wednesday afternoon had already planted doubt. By the time Thursday arrived. the mood changed—slowly at first. then more clearly by the long end of the bond market. Bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction. even if mortgage-backed securities didn’t fully recover the losses they had taken. Ten-year Treasuries, meanwhile, were the bigger mover.
There was still a thread of foreboding in one stubborn detail: the inability of 10-year yields to move below 4.42%. Even so, when the week is taken as a whole, Thursday’s turnaround made it “surprisingly calm” after what had happened earlier.
In the data that followed during the day. the releases were mixed but not explosive—no single figure shattered expectations the way traders had feared might happen. Continued Claims (Jun)/06 came in at 1,810K versus an 1,800K forecast and 1,795K from the prior reading. Jobless Claims (Jun)/13 landed at 226K, compared with a 225K forecast and 229K previously. The Philly Fed Business Index (Jun) printed 10.3 against a 10 forecast, with -0.4 as the prior figure. Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun) registered 53.20, with no forecast listed and 47.90 as the prior reading.
As trading moved through the session, the market’s recovery showed up most clearly in yields. At 08:55 AM. bonds recovered much of the post-Fed sell-off from the overnight period. with the gains weighted toward the long end. Two-year yields lost more ground, while 10-year yields were down 5 bps at 4.446. Mortgage-backed securities were up just under a quarter point.
By 10:24 AM, the picture had sharpened: MBS were up 9 ticks (0.28), and 10-year yields were down 6.3 bps at 4.434. Even later in the afternoon, momentum held—at 03:02 PM, MBS were up 5 ticks (0.16) and 10-year yields were down 4.2 bps at 4.454.
The sequence left traders with a straightforward takeaway: the week that began with fear of volatility ended with a steadier tone. driven by Thursday’s bond rebound and an easing in the day’s pressure. even as the 10-year yield still hovered above the psychologically important 4.42% level. With markets shut for Juneteenth on Friday. the final word for the week belonged to the calmer close—less dramatic than it could have been. but still careful enough to keep attention on how quickly the market can change again.
Juneteenth bond market MBS mortgage-backed securities 10-year Treasury yields 2-year yields continued claims jobless claims Philly Fed Business Index Philly Fed Prices Paid