Lowell intensifies into Category 5 hurricane south of Hawaii | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

UPDATE: 5 p.m.

Hurricane Lowell regained Category 5 status today, packing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph as it drifts west at 7 mph, about 600 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and 615 miles south-southwest of Lihue.

Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more reach out up to 60 miles from Lowell’s center and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extend up to 160 miles.

Lowell is expected to continue its westward movement through Saturday before a weakening ridge triggers a sharp turn to the north on Sunday, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.

The turn will bring the major hurricane close to Kauai late Monday and Monday night. CPHC forecasters warned that hurricane watches could be required for portions of Kauai County on Saturday.

Key Updates

>> Category 5 Strength: Lowell’s winds increased to 160 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight before gradual weakening begins Sunday.

>> Watch Status: No coastal watches or warnings are in effect yet, but watches will likely be issued for Kauai County on Saturday.

>> Rainfall & Surges: Outer bands will bring heavy rain starting Sunday afternoon. Kauai and the Big Island could see 3 to 6 inches of rain with localized totals exceeding 10 inches. Maui is forecast for 2 to 4 inches, while Oahu and other islands could see 1 to 2 inches.

>> Surf Conditions: High surf advisories remain in effect through Saturday afternoon. Waves are forecast to build up to 12 feet along south-facing shores and up to 14 feet along east-facing shores.

>> Other Systems: Hurricane Karina weakened to 80 mph winds about 860 miles east of Hilo and is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Hurricane Marie maintains 100 mph winds off Baja California, moving away from land.

11 a.m.

Hurricane Lowell underwent rapid intensification this morning, surging back to a dangerous Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph.

Data from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite images showed that the storm’s center has grown larger, clearer and is surrounded by a balanced ring of severe thunderstorms, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.

Located about 615 miles south of Lihue and 590 miles south-southwest of Honolulu as of 11 a.m., Lowell is moving west-southwest at 7 mph. Hurricane-force winds reach outward up to 60 miles from Lowell’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

CPHC forecasters warn that Lowell’s rapid strengthening could push it back into Category 5 status later today or tonight.

Although the storm is drifting slightly south, a high-altitude weather system moving north of Hawaii on Sunday is expected to weaken the atmospheric barrier blocking its path. This change will allow Lowell to turn back toward the north, the CPHC said.

The shift will trigger a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast, drawing the major hurricane close to Kauai County late Monday. Official watches for western portions of the state will likely be issued Saturday.

Although southwesterly wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures should promote steady weakening before landfall, weather officials emphasize that Lowell will very likely remain at or near major hurricane strength as it approaches Kauai.

Swells from both Lowell and a weakening Hurricane Karina (now carrying 85 mph winds about 910 miles east of Hilo) continue to churn up dangerous ocean conditions.

A high surf advisory remains in effect through 6 a.m. Saturday for south and east shores across all islands, with surf along southern exposures expected to build up to 10 to 14 feet by Saturday.

A small craft advisory is also active across all Hawaiian waters for east winds up to 25 knots and seas up to 12 feet.

Heavy rainfall from Lowell’s outer moisture bands is projected to reach the islands starting Sunday afternoon and persist into early next week. Forecast rainfall totals include:

>> Kauai and the Big Island: 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals exceeding 10 inches.

>> Maui: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated areas seeing up to 8 inches.

>> Oahu and remaining islands: 1 to 2 inches, with maximum localized amounts up to 4 inches.

Farther east, Hurricane Marie maintains 100 mph winds off Baja California and is expected to track northwest away from land without affecting Hawaii.

Remnants of Hurricane Karina are forecast to be absorbed by Lowell’s broader circulation north of the state early next week, the CPHC said.

EARLIER COVERAGE

Lowell remains a major hurricane passing south of the Hawaiian Islands and is driving breezy tradewinds and large ocean swells toward shorelines statewide today, while forecasters warn the powerful storm could make a sharp turn toward Kauai County early next week.

As of 5 a.m., Hurricane Lowell remained a Category 3 storm, packing maximum sustained winds near 125 mph as it moved west roughly 600 miles south of Lihue and 570 miles south-southwest of Honolulu, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.

Forecasters expect the storm to maintain its westward track while slowing over the next day or two, then making a sharp turn toward the north or north-northeast on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds reach outward up to 45 miles from Lowell’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

Lowell’s turn could bring the cyclone close to Kauai County late Monday and Monday night. Environmental conditions over the next two days could allow Lowell to restrengthen back into a Category 4 hurricane, and it is expected to remain near major hurricane strength as it approaches the state, the CPHC said.

While computer models agree on the overall setup, there remains uncertainty about how close the storm’s core will get to Kauai, forecasters said.

Weather officials cautioned that hurricane watches could be required for portions of Kauai County on Saturday.

Regardless of the storm’s exact track, deep tropical moisture is expected to spread across the island chain, bringing humid conditions and increasing heavy rainfall from Sunday into Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

Initial storm total rainfall estimates range from 3 to 6 inches for Kauai and the Big Island, with localized areas seeing more than 10 inches. Maui could receive 2 to 4 inches, with up to 8 inches in isolated spots, while other islands could see 1 to 2 inches with 4 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.

“This rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,” CPHC said.

In addition to heavy rain, swells generated by Lowell and Hurricane Karina — farther east in the Central Pacific — are generating hazardous beach conditions, the NWS said. A high surf advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. Saturday for south and east shores across all islands, with wave heights forecast to reach 7 to 10 feet along eastern exposures and 8 to 12 feet along southern exposures.

A small craft advisory is also in effect for all Hawaii waters through Saturday morning due to east winds up to 25 knots and seas up to 12 feet.

Meanwhile, two other cyclones besides Lowell are tracking across the Central and Eastern Pacific basins.

Karina entered the Central Pacific today and was carrying 90 mph winds about 955 miles east of Hilo as of 5 a.m. It was moving west at 10 mph with gradual weakening expected over the coming days. Hurricane-force winds reach up to 40 miles from Karina’s center and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 160 miles. By Tuesday, it is expected to dissipate hundreds of miles northeast of Hawaii.

Farther east, Hurricane Marie had 100 mph winds about 550 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving away from land as of 5 a.m. Hurricane-force winds reach outward up to 45 miles from Marie’s center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. It is forecast to move northwest and weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday.

For today, the NWS expects mostly sunny and windy conditions from Kauai to Maui counties. Leeward areas can expect isolated morning showers, while windward and mauka areas will see scattered morning showers giving way to isolated afternoon rain. High temperatures will range from 85 to 90 degrees under northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph. Tonight will be partly cloudy and windy with scattered windward showers and lows from 71 to 76 degrees.

The Big Island can expect mostly sunny and breezy conditions today, with scattered showers across windward areas and isolated afternoon showers in leeward sections. Highs will reach 85 to 90 degrees with northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph. Tonight will bring partly cloudy skies, isolated leeward showers, scattered windward showers and lows from 70 to 75 degrees.