Larry Sabato Shifts 14 Races Toward Democrats — Declares Georgia Senate Now ‘Likely D’
AP Photo/Mike Stewart, File
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved several key races leftward Thursday — including a highly-watched Senate race in Georgia.
President Donald Trump’s polling numbers have been brutal as his second term has progressed, with his immigration crackdown cratering his support, the handling of the Epstein files getting abysmal marks, the Iran War being massively unpopular, and even Americans’ views on his handling of the economy and inflation taking body blows — and his popularity woes are dragging down the GOP in races across the country.
That certainly seems to be the case in Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) re-election bid prospects have gone from hopeful to increasingly solid.
Ossoff has served in the U.S. Senate since winning a runoff election, along with his colleague Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), on Jan. 5, 2021 — one day before the infamous attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters.
The Republican nominee is Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), who is currently embroiled in a scandal regarding white nationalist posts by his son-in-law.
Sabato’s rating moved Georgia from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, reported J. Miles Coleman, noting that while Ossoff was “the only Democrat running for reelection in a state that Donald Trump carried in 2024,” it’s looking increasingly likely he’ll be able to successfully defend his seat.
One key reason, wrote Coleman, is that while Ossoff “has proven to be one of the cycle’s strongest fundraisers,” Collins had to fight through a primary and then a runoff, meaning the two candidates “entered the general election in different financial universes.”
Coleman’s analysis noted that Ossoff has led Collins in the polls, but many of the margins were “in our estimation, likely too good to be true for Democrats.”
However, he added, “while we can easily see this race being decided by a mid-single-digit margin, we are increasingly confident of the outcome” and “it would be a true shock if Ossoff actually went on to lose.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also updated ratings for 13 House seats, all to a more favorable category for Democrats, as reported by Kyle Kondrik.
Those races included:
Lauren Boebert (R, CO-4): Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Kathy Castor (D, FL-14): Leans Republican to Toss-up
Sharice Davids (D, KS-3): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Don Davis (D, NC-1): Leans Republican to Toss-up
Chuck Edwards (R, NC-11): Leans Republican to Toss-up
Nellie Pou (D, NJ-9): Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Mike Lawler (R, NY-17): Leans Republican to Toss-up
Josh Riley (D, NY-19): Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic
Max Miller (R, OH-7): Likely Republican to Leans Republican
Rob Bresnahan (R, PA-8): Leans Republican to Toss-up
Open seat in SC-1: Safe Republican to Likely Republican
Monica De La Cruz (R, TX-15): Likely Republican to Leans Republican
“Democrats are better-positioned thanks to the overall political environment and broader midterm trends,” wrote Kondrik, and the mid-decade redistricting “helped Republicans build an edge in our ratings.”
“Our overall topline assessment is basically unchanged, though: Democrats remain favored to flip the House majority in November, but Republicans have a path, too,” he wrote.
Currently, Sabato’s ratings list 179 seats as Safe Republican; 208 rated Safe, Likely, or Leans R; 181 Safe Democratic; and 207 Safe, Likely, or Leans D. Twenty races are listed as Toss-Up, 15 currently held by Republicans and five by Democrats.
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