For most of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays have been waiting for one of their established stars to give them an offensive jolt — and it’s finally starting to happen.
George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have long been the top candidates to start delivering elite production, but instead the Blue Jays lineup has been carried by Alejandro Kirk.
While Kirk is a two-time all-star, he’s usually more of a strong all-around contributor than an offensive centrepiece. In recent weeks, he’s among MLB’s most dangerous hitters with a 166 second-half wRC+, fourth among qualified hitters. On Aug. 21, his 30-game rolling wRC+ (177) hit its highest point in the last four seasons.
Toronto can’t count on Kirk, a career 111 wRC+ hitter who’s never topped 129 in a single season, to keep up this torrid pace, and some elements of this hot streak are clearly unsustainable. For instance, his second-half BABIP of .356 is well above his career standard (.282), and he’s overshooting his expected numbers by a significant margin after his production matched them extremely closely in the first half.
Kirk is probably experiencing some good fortune at the moment. Still, even if his production was identical to his expected production, a .354 wOBA is better than any qualified Blue Jays hitter in 2026 by a significant margin and way above the league average for a catcher (.302). What we’re seeing from the backstop isn’t just a case of balls dropping in at a disproportionately high rate. He’s been far better than he was in the first half in two notable areas.
One of Kirk’s greatest strengths as a hitter has always been his plate discipline, but his swing decisions have been particularly sharp in recent weeks. In the first half, the veteran catcher’s walk and strikeout rates — and the swing rates underlying them — were the least of his offensive concerns, but they were still slightly below his career standards and much worse than his excellent work lately.
By cutting out swings outside the zone without becoming passive in the zone, Kirk has increased his walk rate and cut down on strikeouts. In the second half, 78.6 per cent of his balls in play have come on pitches in the zone, as opposed to 68.9 per cent in the first, which also gives him a better chance to drive the ball.
Before the all-star break, Kirk’s biggest offensive issue was the weak contact he was generating. His average exit velocity (85.8 m.p.h.) was well below his career average (89.9 m.p.h.) and near where Andrés Giménez sits this season (85.5 m.p.h.). In the second half, he’s been closer to his own standard (89.8 m.p.h.), with much stronger contact-quality metrics across the board.
That increase was backed by improved bat speed, as his second-half average (72.1 m.p.h.) is up more than 1 m.p.h. from the first half (70.9 mph), and close to his 2025 number (72.5 m.p.h.).
Zooming out, it probably shouldn’t be surprising that a player who broke his thumb in early April has found his footing as the season has gone on. The all-star break was also likely helpful for a veteran playing the game’s most physically demanding position. It would’ve been shocking if Kirk hadn’t been able to improve on the grim offensive production he managed earlier in the year.
What stands out is both the extent of Kirk’s in-season improvement and its multifaceted foundation. The 27-year-old hasn’t merely been better in recent weeks; he’s been the fourth most valuable position player in the game by fWAR (1.8) with a gaudy .353/.438/.520 line backing up his consistently stellar defence.
He hasn’t just improved in one aspect of his offensive performance; he’s tightened up his swing decisions at the exact same time his swings have become more forceful. That leaves the Blue Jays with a single position player delivering star-level output, something that’s been elusive for most of 2026 and essential for a team within 1.5 games of a playoff spot.