Ukrainian woman detained by ICE at San Francisco International Airport
Iryna Gorb, who reportedly lived in the U.S. for more than 15 years, was detained by ICE and is being held pending removal proceedings.
Months of immigration enforcement controversies have taken their toll, and new polling shows it could be a problem for Republicans heading into the midterms.
About eight in 10 independent voters say U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has used too much force in its nationwide operations, according to a poll from YouGov, which sampled 1,000 voters in late July. It’s a striking increase from 2025, when polls showed independents more divided on the issue.
The poll, commissioned by the Vera Institute of Justice, a nonprofit working to end mass incarceration, was conducted shortly after ICE agents shot and killed two immigrants during traffic stops in Maine and Texas over the span of six days in July.
An earlier YouGov poll, which was conducted before the two shootings, found that most independents – 62% – believe ICE has gone too far. Other polls from YouGov, AP-NORC and The Civic Health and Institutions Project found that only a fraction of independent voters support ICE’s handling of immigration enforcement.
The data comes months ahead of the midterms, as Republicans are seeking to hold onto a narrow majority in both chambers of Congress. Several races are expected to be close and could be decided by independent voters – a group whose support has grown increasingly vital in recent elections.
The Department of Homeland Security in an emailed statement cited June polling data showing 80% of Americans support “deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes.” The statement urged cities to cooperate with ICE and praised the work of immigration officers.
Immigration was one of the top issues that led Republicans to win the presidency and gain full control of Congress in 2024, amid mounting frustrations over the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S. southern border. But high-profile enforcement raids and multiple deadly shootings over the last year have eroded support for a central part of President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda, political scientists and strategists said.
But not all of the president’s actions on immigration are as unpopular as ICE’s interior enforcement. The plunging number of border crossings into the U.S. is considered a success among at least half of all Americans, including independents, polls show. And Republicans overall maintain a sizable advantage on which party voters believe would do a better job at handling border security.
But with the midterms less than three months away, any uptick in disfavor for ICE among independents could spell trouble for Republicans seeking to win over voters from the center, experts said.
“This is a big vulnerability,” said Matthew Grossman, a political scientist and professor of public policy at Michigan State University. “An issue that [Republicans] had in previous elections is now working to their disadvantage.”
In a statement, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said GOP candidates running in the midterms will continue to embrace Trump’s record on immigration and draw a contrast with the Biden administration.
“President Trump secured the border and is finally enforcing the law after four years of Biden-Harris chaos that let fentanyl and criminals pour into this country and cost American lives in every district,” he said. “Democrats spent four years defending open borders and calling it compassion while Americans paid the price. Republicans will keep drawing that contrast in every district, because voters haven’t forgotten what lawlessness looks like.”
‘The public mood has changed’
Trump was elected with a promise to carry out the largest deportation operation in U.S. history. On the campaign trail, his supporters held signs that read “MASS DEPORTATION NOW!” And in a 2024 interview with Time magazine, Trump said he wanted to deport “probably 15 million and maybe as many as 20 million” people.
Polls conducted in the months before the 2024 election saw Trump leading Biden by roughly 20 points on immigration and border security. Some polls found that for most voters, immigration was their top issue.
But controversies have eroded that support.
Surges of federal agents into cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago and Minneapolis fueled mass protests, lawsuits and widespread claims of harassment and racial profiling. In January, public outrage spiked following the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good by immigration agents in Minnesota.
In the aftermath, immigration authorities sought to keep a lower profile, moving away from the highly visible raids that drew intense scrutiny. Republicans, meanwhile, talked less about mass deportations and more about targeted enforcement going after criminals, as well as the low number of border crossings.
But protests and backlash reignited again in July after ICE agents in Texas and Maine shot and killed two men in less than a week. And while immigration authorities have largely halted their high-profile raids, ICE detentions have surged.
A poll from The Associated Press and NORC conducted after the shootings found that 39% of adults approved of Trump’s performance on immigration, down from 49% at the start of his term.
According to the same poll, three in 10 adults approve of the way ICE is enforcing immigration laws. Among independents, 18% approved of ICE’s actions.
“This has consequences for the campaigns,” said Kyle Kondik, a political analyst who has written several books on U.S. elections. “Some of the messaging that Republicans thought was effective in 2024 on immigration may not be anymore because the public mood has changed.”
Immigration remains a deeply partisan issue
Polls show that views on immigration largely fall along party lines, as has been the trend for more than a decade, experts said.
Less than two out of 10 Republicans say ICE has used excessive force, and most either said the agency has used “about the right amount of force” or “not enough,” according to the YouGov poll conducted in July. Democrats, meanwhile, remain firmly opposed to the immigration enforcement operations underway, with nine out of 10 saying ICE has gone too far.
In primary races across the U.S., immigration was one of the central issues in campaign speeches and advertisements, especially in areas that saw large amounts of enforcement actions.
Some Democratic candidates who won their party’s nomination have called for ICE to be abolished, including progressives in Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey.
On the Republican side, many primary candidates leaned into immigration, spending tens of millions on advertisements that mention or were solely focused on the issue, according to data from the firm AdImpact. Those in areas that have seen controversial ICE actions have walked a tightrope, criticizing some tactics while supporting popular immigration-related initiatives like enhanced border security.
It’s largely proved successful. On Aug. 4, a slate of Trump-backed Republican candidates who support the administration’s immigration enforcement efforts won the GOP nomination in Washington state, Kansas and Michigan.
But, as analysts note, candidates often appeal to their party’s hardline or most vocal factions in primaries before later tempering their messages.
“They’re speaking to a different electorate in the primary than they are in the general,” Grossman said.
What does this mean for the midterms?
It’s unclear how much of an impact immigration will have on the November elections, analysts said. A lot can happen by the time voters head to the polls. And in each district, voters’ priorities are different.
The YouGov poll conducted in late June and early July found that cost of living, inflation and the economy were the top issues for voters – not immigration, which ranked below healthcare policy and international military conflicts. Recent polling from Pew Research Center and Marquette Law School showed similar results.
But like immigration, public support for Trump’s handling of the economy and the Iran war has waned, giving Republican candidates limited options for a positive messaging strategy heading into November, analysts said.
Experts suspect Republican candidates will focus their messaging on their opponents in coming months.
“Their current positive sign, as [Republicans] see it, is Democrats are nominating more extreme candidates,” Grossman said, speaking about the wave of progressives who’ve won Democratic primaries across the country. “That might mean more negative campaigns going into the fall.”
GOP leadership has already begun employing this tactic.
During an Aug. 5 speech focused on the economy and how his policies have lowered costs for Americans, Trump repeatedly turned to the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
“These people are dangerous and, frankly, lunatics,” Trump told the crowd at a Las Vegas casino. “They’re crazy, and we can’t let them get into office.”
Christopher Cann is a national reporter for USA TODAY. Contact him by email at ccann@usatoday.com.