A new University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll released Tuesday shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly leading Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race, tightening what was already a dead heat less than a month after Pa
For months, Ken Paxton’s path to the U.S. Senate has been defined by close fights—first in a bitter Republican primary, then again in the numbers. In the days after he secured his party’s nomination. a new statewide poll found him holding a narrow advantage over Democratic challenger James Talarico. even as independents appear split and undecided voters remain a large swing.
The University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll, released Tuesday, June 22, shows Paxton leading Talarico by a single percentage point: 43% to 42%. The general election is still months away, but the race is already behaving like one that could be decided by turnout and base consolidation.
That tension matters because it follows a different story just weeks earlier. A previous poll from Texas Public Opinion Research showed Paxton trailing Talarico in late May. despite Paxton winning the GOP primary runoff. In that runoff, Paxton secured President Donald Trump’s endorsement and beat U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, taking 63% of the vote.
The latest poll also offers a window into how quickly each party’s supporters have settled on a choice. Republicans, it suggests, are rallying more tightly behind Paxton as election day approaches, while Democrats show near-unanimous support for Talarico.
A closer look at the internal numbers shows the consolidation at work. In a previous Texas Politics Project poll in April. 63% of Republicans said they would support Paxton in a hypothetical matchup against Talarico. By the June survey, that figure jumped to 84% of Republicans supporting Paxton if the election were held today.
The same internal breakdown helps explain why the race remains so tight. Five percent of Republicans would support Talarico, 2% would prefer Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, another 2% would support an unspecified “someone else,” and 7% said they had no opinion.
Democrats, meanwhile, are far less divided. The poll found 88% of Democrats support Talarico, with 1% supporting Paxton. Three percent choose the Libertarian candidate, 2% pick “someone else,” and 6% have no opinion.
Independents—who make up 9% of the poll’s sample after weighting—tilt toward Talarico but not enough to remove uncertainty. Forty percent of independent voters opted for Talarico, while 12% preferred Paxton. Seven percent said they would support the Libertarian candidate and 8% would vote for “someone else.” Still. 34% of independent voters had no opinion about the contest so far.
The sequence the numbers show is straightforward: Republicans move decisively toward Paxton, Democrats remain anchored to Talarico, and independents are still unresolved enough that a single campaign shift could change the ceiling of either candidate.
The poll was conducted among 1,200 self-reported registered voters from June 5-12. Its margin of error is plus or minus 2.83%, or 3.47% adjusted for weighting.
With the campaign still in its early stretch. the latest figures underscore a central reality of this Senate race: even after Paxton’s Trump-endorsed primary win over Cornyn. the general election contest remains within the range where small shifts—especially among independents and undecided voters—can rewrite the forecast.
Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas Senate race University of Texas poll Texas Politics Project John Cornyn Donald Trump endorsement Ted Brown Texas primary runoff independents Republicans consolidate