J-Rod’s monster May could reshape MVP races

J-Rod’s monster – Julio Rodríguez’s second-half swing has become a full-on May statement: 27 extra-base hits in his past 53 games, including 13 homers, and a .590 slugging month. As the Mariners rebound from a 22-26 start to the AL West lead, and Yankees star Aaron Judge faces

The Mariners didn’t need another reminder that Julio Rodríguez could take over a season. They needed proof that it could happen faster—without the usual delay.

For more than four years. the pattern has been consistent: Rodríguez has been better in the second half than the first. From 2022-25, he posted a .737 OPS before the All-Star break and a .902 OPS after it. In each of those seasons, his OPS in the second half was at least 123 points higher than the first.

That’s why it wasn’t shocking when it took more than two weeks for Rodríguez to record his first extra-base hit of 2026. What has followed, though, has been hard to ignore.

In his past 53 games, Rodríguez has produced 27 extra-base hits—13 of them homers—while slugging .528 over that span. May was even louder. He finished the month with 10 homers, 17 extra-base hits, and a .590 SLG. It’s a personal ceiling: Rodríguez has never had more homers or extra-base hits in a calendar month. and he topped that SLG only once before in any month where he logged at least 100 at-bats.

His highest SLG in a calendar month, with a minimum of 100 ABs, reads like a roadmap of what’s possible:
1. .724 in August 2023
2. .590 in May 2026
3. .587 in August 2025
4. .546 in September 2024
5. .542 in June 2022

And yet the question on everyone’s mind isn’t whether Rodríguez can still roar. It’s what happens if he doesn’t have to wait.

Rodríguez has already built the kind of résumé that turns “maybe” into “history.” He has made three All-Star teams. won two Silver Sluggers. earned MVP votes three times. and was named the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year. He also became the first player to have at least 20 homers and 20 steals in each of his first four seasons. Before turning 25, he joined Alex Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only players with at least 110 homers and 110 steals.

But the counterpoint has always been timing. For fans and voters who only see the first few months, the slow starts have sometimes blurred what he can do when he’s fully rolling. This year, he’s giving them fewer excuses to look away.

Through 67 team games, his numbers in each of the following categories are the best he’s had through that point in a season. June has traditionally been one of his tougher months—his career .699 OPS—so there’s still a finish line ahead. Still, May has him staking out new ground heading into summer.

That timing matters beyond the box score. Rodríguez has never advanced past Phase 1 of the All-Star voting. Even with three All-Star selections and two appearances in the Midsummer Classic, early-season struggles made it hard to gather enough fan support to land a starting spot.

This year, that may shift. Phase 1 of the voting began last week, and Rodríguez is one of the strongest AL outfield contenders. The possibility got more real when it became expected that Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge would miss the All-Star Game due to a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side.

Judge’s injury doesn’t only change the All-Star picture—it tilts the MVP race. The award that he has won in three of the past four seasons is now anyone’s to claim.

For Rodríguez, it’s the same familiar dilemma—how to carry an elite second-half script into a season that starts strong. If he follows that usual pattern, and builds on what he’s already done, he’s likely to be in the conversation.

He’s already logged three top-seven finishes in his career, even in seasons where he had to play catch-up. This time, he’s not just catching up. He’s pulling away.

The Mariners’ trajectory adds weight to the argument. They rebounded from a 22-26 start and took control of first place in the AL West with a 13-6 stretch. They’ve done it without last year’s AL MVP runner-up. Cal Raleigh. who had a .560 OPS before going on the injured list with a right oblique strain.

There’s also a detail voters—sometimes reluctantly—notice: defense. Rodríguez can help his cause by cleaning up what has been an uncharacteristically poor defensive stretch. In 2026, his defense has been measured at -3 Outs Above Average. Across 2022-25, he was one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, posting +38 OAA. The expectation is that he returns to form.

Even with that caveat, the groundwork for what could be the best season of his career is already there. The only difference now is that the season isn’t waiting for his “later.” May arrived like a statement. and with the AL MVP conversation visibly opening up. Rodríguez has put himself in position to make the timing finally work in his favor.

Julio Rodríguez J-Rod May 2026 Mariners AL MVP race Aaron Judge stress fracture All-Star voting Silver Slugger MVP votes