TEHRAN, Iran — Iran is set to enter peace talks with the United States carrying a kind of confidence that looks emotional on the surface, but has a strategic edge underneath. The regime’s survival and the leverage it still believes it holds are front and center, even as Israeli strikes on Lebanon threaten to derail the process.
In Tehran, that double mood is hard to miss. On Thursday, the city hosted large pro-government crowds marking 40 days since the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and some mourners beat their chests while chanting against surrender or compromise.
Television screens and state messaging framed the talks as a result Iran earned—at least that’s how the government wanted it understood. “We have granted you a clear victory,” new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement published by Iranian state media Thursday ahead of the talks expected to take place in Islamabad this weekend. Tehran’s officials echoed the same language this week, and they pointed to the two-week ceasefire as proof that their pressure is working.
Not everyone in the crowd bought it, though. Yahya, one attendee, told Misryoum that he wasn’t optimistic because “we know the other side,” adding that it felt like “more of a deception, a trap.” His skepticism sounded less like politics and more like everyday caution—like someone who has lived through too many promises. Another detail stuck: the smell of smoke and roasted bread drifted over the rally area as people gathered, and then the conversation quickly turned back to the same question—what would the other side actually give.
The negotiation themes that could decide everything—Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program—are also the areas where Tehran is signaling limits. President Donald Trump had vowed to annihilate the “whole civilization” of Iran if it did not agree to a deal to reopen the strait, through which some 20% of the world’s oil passes. Yet even after Tehran announced the ceasefire, Trump accused Iran of “doing a very poor job” of opening up the waterway, and traffic has remained largely at a standstill. In Misryoum reporting, the argument from Iran’s side is that the country has the upper hand strategically, because it can still effectively assert authority over the strait and keep energy prices high.
Experts Misryoum spoke with said Trump may not accept Iran’s most contentious demands. Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute, said Iran has emerged with the upper hand strategically, but she did not foresee Trump agreeing to some of Iran’s tougher requirements. Misryoum newsroom reporting also captured the worry that Washington and Tehran are not even debating the same nuclear terms—especially if Iran’s plan includes “acceptance
of enrichment,” which would be at odds with the U.S. stance. “I don’t believe that President Trump will concede to allowing Iran any type of pathway that might lead to its obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Ozcelik said. “So, we’re in for a very difficult two weeks at the very least,” she added, with Andreas Krieg later agreeing that Tehran would want to make the point that enrichment would remain within Iran.
But there’s another problem hanging over Islamabad: Lebanon. Misryoum newsroom reporting notes that Tehran has warned Israel’s continued assault on Lebanon—where scores of people were killed in a massive Israeli attack after the Iran ceasefire came into effect—could render the talks meaningless. Israel and the U.S. have maintained that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire, while both Iran and mediator Pakistan have said it was. Israel also said it planned to hold direct talks with Lebanon, where it continued trading attacks with the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. The Lebanese government has yet to respond to the offer, and it was unclear whether this would satisfy Iran.
The question now, as Misryoum analysis framed it, is whether Trump will use his leverage over Netanyahu to demand that Israel pull back from military operations in Lebanon, as he did in past negotiations over Gaza. A former Israeli official told Misryoum that the president has the ability to do that again—whether he chooses to is the key question. A foreign diplomat involved as an intermediary echoed a similar point: “Much will depend on whether the president is ready to make demands on Israel.” At the same time, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly emphasized that Trump’s priority is to focus on U.S. interests, saying he will only accept one that puts America first.
Back in Tehran, people are trying to treat Friday like something close to normal, even if many doubt the ceasefire will hold. Residents moved outside for coffee, planning small moments while weighing big fears. Azadeh, 42, said it was “too soon to say or be sure” what would happen next, and that she would return to the capital for her birthday celebration if the ceasefire remains in place. Others sounded more worn down, noticing that even after Trump’s talk of regime change, hard-line rulers are still in control. “We really thought they were finished,” a fitness coach from Tehran told Misryoum earlier this week, describing how pro-regime promises didn’t translate into a political breakthrough. His question wasn’t complicated—“What happens next?”—and it’s the one that now shadows the talks in Islamabad, trailing behind every headline and every statement that insists this time is different.
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