Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed after a second night of U.S. strikes targeting air defense sites and other military assets. The U.S. rejects that claim, saying commercial ships are still transiting. But the practical answer may not come from Tehran or
For the second night on Wednesday, the strikes landed deep inside Iran—targeting air defense sites and other military assets across the country. By that same day, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.
The threat followed quickly. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it would shoot at tankers and commercial ships attempting to transit the waterway.
The U.S., however, pushed back on the closure claim. The U.S. military disputed Iran’s announcement on X, saying commercial ships continue to transit in and out of the strait.
So the standoff is now more than a contest of language—it’s a test of what ships actually choose to do. Ultimately, that call won’t be made by leaders in Tehran or Washington. It will be made by the companies deciding whether the route is safe enough to keep oil and goods moving.
“It is not the US or even Iran who decides if the Strait of Hormuz is open or not. It is shipping companies,” Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNN last month during an interview discussing the long-term security of the strait.
“The strait will open when shippers have decided it is safe to transit again.”
By that standard, the strait could be described as effectively shut—if not sealed. Visible transits have collapsed to, at best, low double-digit figures from around 140 vessels a day before the war. Some additional movement is described as ‘dark’ transits, where vessels turn off transponders to avoid detection. Still. the core reality remains: the shipping industry is the one setting the pace for how open the strait is in practice.
Whether Iran’s closure warning or the U.S. denial proves more accurate in the short term, the consequences are already measurable in the numbers on the water. The industry can keep testing the route—yet every transit attempt is now wrapped in the same fear: that a declaration on either side could turn into action at sea.
Strait of Hormuz Iran closure United States strikes IRGC tankers commercial ships transits dark transits Gregory Brew Eurasia Group shipping companies