Last year, Indiana went 16-0 and won the national championship. To start this year, the Associated Press Poll has them ranked outside the top five at No. 6.
How frequent is such a drop?
USA TODAY went through historical archives to find the AP Poll preseason rank of the defending BCS or College Football Playoff Champion to determine whether Indiana’s rank is rare or commonplace.
It turns out that in the 28 preseason polls since the BCS launched in 1998, the defending champion has been ranked outside of the top five just six times, including Indiana’s ranking this year.
The first team to do so was Florida in 2007. The Gators won the national title in 2006 in part to a stout defense. However, nine starters from that defense left, and the AP dropped them to No. 6 in the 2007 preseason poll.
The following year, a similar fate befell LSU, which came into the 2008 season No. 7 in the AP poll. The Tigers faced questions at quarterback as championship-winning Matt Flynn was gone, as well as his expected replacement Ryan Perriloux.
In 2011, Auburn went from title-winning to No. 23 in the AP’s preseason poll. They had lost Heisman-winning quarterback Cam Newton, but also Lombardi-winning defensive lineman Nick Fairley, and had 19 new starters in 2011.
LSU was again dropped outside the top five in 2020 after a 15-0 national championship-winning season. Heisman winner Joe Burrow left for the NFL, along with 13 other draftees. Plus, several coaches also left the team, leaving question marks beyond just the roster.
Michigan in 2024 was the fifth case. The defending champions lost head coach Jim Harbaugh, plus had a school-record 13 players drafted, and ultimately the AP poll dropped the Wolverines to No. 9 in the preseason rankings.
It’s worth noting that the USA TODAY-administered Coaches Poll has been more bullish than the AP Poll when it comes to ranking these discounted national champions. Except for Indiana.
Throwing out the Hoosiers — also No. 6 in this year’s preseason US LBM Coaches Poll — the previous five discounted defending champions were higher ranked in the Coaches Poll compared to their AP Poll rank. Notably, both Florida in 2007 (up to No. 3 in the Coaches Poll) and LSU in 2020 (up to No. 5) were both top-five teams in the preseason Coaches Poll. Every other defending champion has also been ranked in the top five of the Coaches Poll to start the season outside the other four (2007 LSU, 2011 Auburn, 2024 Michigan and 2026 Indiana).
So, Indiana’s drop certainly isn’t without precedent, but it’s rarer than not that the defending champion is ranked outside the top five.
Of course, like with the previous champs that suffered preseason drops, the Hoosiers enter the 2026 season with some big questions — notably, Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza went No. 1 in the NFL draft to the Las Vegas Raiders.
Still, Indiana brings back 60 players, including 11 who made multiple starts during the championship season, and added the No. 8 transfer class in 247Sports’ final portal rankings.
There is one more warning to heed, however. Out of the previous five national champions that were ranked outside the top five, just Florida finished inside the final AP Top 25.
The Gators ended the 2007 season No. 13 in the AP Poll. Meanwhile, 2008 LSU, 2011 Auburn, 2020 LSU and 2024 Michigan all finished their title defenses unranked.
Can Indiana avoid this trend? We’ll have to wait to find out.
Methodology: BCS and College Football Playoff champions identified from the NCAA’s list of national champions. Historical preseason AP Poll rankings from the College Poll Archive. The 2026 preseason poll is from the AP. USC is included for 2005 because its 2004 BCS title had not yet been vacated.