ICE Raids Ripple Through Childcare, Shifting Jobs Fast

ICE raids – A new study finds that immigration arrests ramped up after President Donald Trump’s inauguration and coincided with a sharp drop in foreign-born employment in formal childcare centers—while jobs rose in less visible in-home care. Researchers say the displaceme

On a typical weekday. a childcare center depends on steady staffing—adults showing up on time. classrooms running on routine. parents booking their workdays around predictable care. But last year, as immigration arrests surged after President Donald Trump’s inauguration, that routine fractured. In formal childcare centers. employment fell significantly as fear spread among workers who believed they could be targeted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

A new study by researchers from the University of Vermont. Yale University. Arizona State University and American University found that employment in center-based childcare dropped as immigration arrests ramped up following Trump’s inauguration. At the same time, jobs increased in “less visible” childcare settings, including in-home nannying. The shift, the study suggests, did not fully compensate for the decline at childcare centers.

The researchers connect the change to the reality that childcare is powered disproportionately by immigrant women—and that many would be unwilling to risk going to work if they believed a mass raid could come while ICE agents were pulling people from cars and arresting workers on jobsites. Instead of working where they might be easily identified. some caregiving moved into private homes. where it can be harder to see and. as Tekin put it. could offer a relative sense of safety.

Erdal Tekin. an economist at American University and co-author of the study. said the spillover could have consequences that reach far beyond staffing rosters. The availability of quality childcare affects whether parents can work and also affects children’s physical and cognitive development. Tekin warned that the disruption working parents absorb is not limited to individual households—it grows out of how immigration policy changes where people can safely work.

“Childcare is a clear example of how immigration policy can spill over into the lives of American families by pushing workers out of center-based care and creating disruptions that working parents often have to bear,” Tekin said.

The study aligns its findings with the deportation campaign Trump was elected to pursue. Trump ran on promises to arrest undocumented immigrants and carry out a mass deportation campaign. The number of immigration-related arrests in the nation’s interior surged last year as federal agents were deployed in cities including Los Angeles. Washington. D.C. Minneapolis. and other major cities. Brookings, the study notes, estimates that around 400,000 people have been detained following inland arrests since the crackdown began.

Some accounts from the ground suggested that some childcare workers disappeared from centers. The study does not claim every absence was the result of deportation; instead, it describes fear as a driver—workers reportedly stayed away because they didn’t want to risk being snatched.

Tekin said the researchers set the employment data from childcare centers against immigration arrests from before and after Trump’s inauguration and found “empirical evidence” that the crackdown shaped the industry—especially in where and how women worked.

The numbers are stark in the first nine months of 2025. The study estimates that employment among foreign-born women in childcare centers dropped by nearly 52. 900. while employment increased by 28. 400 in in-home care. Tekin said the “reallocation” matters for quality. Foreign-born women working in childcare centers are more likely to have advanced degrees and industry credentials than those working in private residences. and they are also better protected by labor regulations. Their employers, Tekin said, are more subject to inspections and oversight.

“Center-based childcare is mostly regulated and visible and subject to licensing requirements — and easier for [immigration] enforcement activity to be targeted at,” Tekin said.

As this staffing shift played out, the childcare system remained under pressure on cost. Childcare in the U.S. is extremely expensive, topping $20,000 per year for a single child in pricier markets. During the 2024 campaign. Trump was asked how he would bring those costs down but “rambled unintelligibly.” As president. he has not put forth a comprehensive plan for lowering childcare expenses. He has also said, “the United States can’t take care of day care.”.

“We’re fighting wars,” he said. “We can’t take care of day care. You gotta let a state take care of day care, and they should pay for it, too.”

The study did not examine whether the deportation campaign has impacted childcare prices. Still, Tekin said it’s unlikely that shrinking the labor pool has made care more affordable. Even if there were fewer workers. childcare’s costs would not necessarily fall in a sector where demand persists and care is expensive to provide.

The researchers also tested a central claim from the administration: that removing immigrants would boost wages and opportunities for people born in the U.S. Tekin and his colleagues did not find any evidence of that outcome in childcare. Tekin said the sector is “a very low-paying sector,” with high turnover and strong reliance on immigrants. His team’s results did not show any substantive increase in the number of native-born childcare workers.

“Our results do not show any substantive increase in the numbers of native-born childcare workers.”

Taken together, the study paints a clear picture of how enforcement choices can reorder a daily-care workforce. Formal centers lose foreign-born employment at a measurable scale. in-home care expands in response. and the change raises questions about what happens to quality and regulation when care shifts into places enforcement is harder to target. In a system already priced beyond many families’ reach, the burden does not neatly disappear—it moves.

ICE raids U.S. childcare immigration arrests deportation campaign employment foreign-born women in-home nannying childcare quality Erdal Tekin U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement