Powerful Hurricane Lowell, now a Category 4 storm, is expected to make a sharp turn. Forecasters aren’t yet sure how close it will come to Hawaii.
Hawaii starts cleanup as Hurricane Lala leaves thousands without power
Hurricane Lala caused widespread destruction in Hawaii, leaving over 126,000 households without power with forecasters warning impacts may persist.
Powerful Hurricane Lowell, now a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, is on a forecast track that is predicted to make a dramatic right turn toward the western Hawaiian islands over the weekend, forecasters said on the morning of Sept. 3.
Lowell is forecast to keep moving to the west for about two days before starting a sharp right hand turn to the north over the weekend, but forecasters aren’t yet sure how close it will come to Hawaii.
“While it is still too soon to determine the exact track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week,” a National Hurricane Center advisory said.
Lowell is forecast to remain a major hurricane throughout its track over the next five days. A major hurricane is a Category 3 (or above) storm and has winds of at least 111 mph. Lowell was briefly a Category 5 (with 160 mph winds) on Sept. 2 before weakening slightly to Category 4 on Sept. 3.
“Now is the time to make a plan for worst case scenario in order to be able to take action if and when needed,” the National Weather Service advised.
“While confidence is not high there is a possibility that a major hurricane can impact the state next week,” the weather service office in Honolulu said in a forecast discussion.
The most recent forecast takes Lowell toward the western Hawaiian island of Kauai, devastated in 1992 by Hurricane Iniki, considered the most destructive storm in Hawaii history.
Where is Hurricane Lowell now?
As of 11 a.m. ET on Sept. 3, the center of Hurricane Lowell was about 450 miles south-southwest of Hilo, Hawaii, and was moving to the west at 10 mph. The update moved the western side of Kauai into the center’s forecast cone graphic that shows the possible path of the center of the storm.
“Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane for the next several days,” the hurricane center said.
The center also advises Hawaiians to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. “This is a good time for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place.”
Even though the storm is far from Hawaii, the hurricane center warns that “swells from Lowell are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. Depending on the exact track of the storm, these swells are likely to increase early next week.”
Swells from Lowell are expected to arrive across the island chain Sept. 3, prompting surf advisories for islands with south and southeast exposures, the weather service said. “Confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of extra-large surf,” into the second week of September, the service said.
Preparations underway
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a statewide emergency on Sept. 2, citing the three storms in the central and eastern Pacific, previous damage from Hurricane Lala and the busier than normal storm activity because of the El Niño.
Hawaii is still recovering from Lala, which swept the island chain in mid-August, causing significant damage across the state, Green pointed out in a proclamation. Such proclamations are a procedural measure officials take in emergencies to allow for mobilization of resources and staff to prepare for and respond to potential impacts.
Sharp right turns have occurred before
Both of the two hurricanes to make a direct landfall on the major islands of Hawaii in the modern record also took sharp right turns. Lowell is forecast to make a turn similar to Iniki, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, parent agency for the National Weather Service and hurricane center.
As Iniki intensified into a major hurricane in early September 1992, a large low-pressure area to the north caused the storm to make a sharp turn northward and speed up as it approached Kauai. Iniki made landfall on the island as a Category 4 hurricane, with wind gusts of more than 220 mph, the strongest on record to hit the islands, according to a report from the state’s Department of Defense.
All the islands experienced impacts, but the effects on Kauai and Oahu were the worst, the hurricane center said in a post-storm summary. Seven people were killed and about 100 injured, according to the NOAA report. Winds at Kauai’s Port Allen were reported at 143 mph, and the storm surge and waves reached nearly 30 feet above normal.
In August 1959, Hurricane Dot took a similar track, though not quite as pronounced, historical records show. Dot also made landfall on Kauai.
El Niño helps fuel an active Pacific season
The Pacific hurricane basin, fueled by a potent El Niño, has been extremely active this season: So far this year, there have been 15 tropical depressions and storms in the eastern and central Pacific, including five hurricanes, the hurricane center said.
In addition to Lowell, Hurricanes Marie and Karina are also spinning in the Pacific Ocean. Neither is a direct threat to hit any land areas.
A swell from Hurricane Karina is forecast to begin arriving across the Hawaiian Islands on Sept. 4 and may also produce high surf advisories, along east-facing shores, the weather service said.
Moisture from Marie is forecast to bring some clouds and showery weather to southern California over the next few days. Swells from Marie are forecast to spread northward to Southern California by the weekend, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the hurricane center warned.
This story has been updated to add new information.
Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.