Category 4 Hurricane Lowell is forecast to turn northward over the weekend and take a path uncomfortably close to Kauai on Labor Day.
Peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives
The entire Atlantic Ocean is now open for tropical development as we enter late August. AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno explains why.
Hurricane Lowell continued its trek near the Hawaiian Islands early Saturday morning, Sept. 5. The storm, a Category 4 with 155 mph winds, is forecast to approach the western Hawaiian island of Kauai on Monday, Labor Day. Fortunately, the center of the hurricane is expected to miss Kauai.
The storm, now moving west at just 7 mph, is forecast to slow and turn sharply northward or north-northeastward by Sunday, Sept. 6, and accelerate, the National Hurricane Center said.
Lowell is expected to be “near major hurricane strength when it makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands,” the hurricane center said. A major hurricane has winds of at least 111 mph; Category 3, 4 and 5 storms are classified as major hurricanes.
“Any deviation eastward from its forecast track could bring more severe wind impacts, especially to Kauai County,” the National Weather Service in Honolulu said. The weather service expects to discuss the need for potential watches and warnings later in the day on Sept. 5.
Where is Hurricane Lowell now?
As of 5 a.m. ET on Saturday, the center of Lowell was about 610 miles south-southwest of Honolulu and 620 miles south-southwest of Lihue on Kauai. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, making it a Category 4 storm.
The hurricane briefly restrengthened to a Category 5 storm on Friday, Sept. 4, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Fluctuations in intensity are possible through Sunday, Sept. 6.
Lowell’s hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
Hawaii rainfall forecast for Lowell
“Heavy rainfall is likely to impact most islands at some point during Lowell’s passage,” said the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Rain is forecast across the south slopes of Maui and the Big Island as early as Sunday evening, followed by the rest of Maui County and Oahu on Monday morning, and Kauai on Monday afternoon.
Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible for Kauai and the Big Island, the hurricane center said. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible.
Across the remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches is possible.
This rainfall may produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. The weather service said the locally higher rain amounts are expected on south and southeast slopes.
Rough surf also expected
Swells from two storms are expected to affect the Hawaiian Islands over Saturday and Sunday and early in the week.
Swells from Lowell are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions in portions of the Islands during the next several days. High surf advisories are in place for all south- and east-facing shores in Hawaii, as well as the west shore of the Big Island, under the influence of Lowell and Hurricane Karina.
Southerly swells from Lowell are forecast to bring high surf advisories to the islands through Saturday, Sept. 5, while Karina is producing high surf on east-facing shores.
The weather service said confidence is beginning to increase for the potential for extra-large surf along south and western exposures early next week. Coinciding with monthly high tides, the surf will create the potential for impacts to harbor entrances and channels, as well as coastal properties and roads.
As Karina disintegrates, an easterly swell from the gale from the remnants of former Hurricane Karina is expected through Sunday, with higher seas, winds and chances of rain on Monday night and Tuesday as that gale moves through the area, the weather service said.
Track Lowell
Beware the right-front quadrant
The current projected path of Lowell shows it zooming to the north, likely impacting Kauai on Monday. This will bring the storm’s right front quadrant toward Kauai.
Why is this important? “The winds, storm surge and even tornadic activity tend to be more extreme or prevalent in the right-front quadrant,” said University of Georgia meteorologist Marshall Shepherd recently in Forbes magazine.
This is because the storm’s forward motion adds to its rotating winds, producing the highest wind speeds and often the worst surge and tornado threat, according to Weather.com meteorologist Chris Dolce.
What are the wind chances in the Hawaiian Islands?
The hurricane center’s current forecast indicates the following probabilities for tropical storm-force winds on Sept. 7 to 8. A path eastward from the current trajectory would increase wind chances in the islands.
- 45% – Nihoa (150 miles northwest of Kauai)
- 23% – Niihau
- 14% – Barking Sands, Kauai
- 8% – Lihue, Kauai
The island of Nihoa also has up to a 50% chance of 58-mph winds on Tuesday and a 37% chance of hurricane-force winds, while the chances for those higher winds on the outlying islands of Necker and Niihau are in single digits, the center said.
Hurricane safety tips
This weekend would be a good time for Hawaii residents to review hurricane safety plans.
The weather service notes that storm surge and inland flooding remain the deadliest hurricane hazards and urged people to know their evacuation zone, follow evacuation orders and never drive on flooded roads. Several storm-related fatalities in 2026 have been linked to motorists attempting to cross flooded roadways.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also recommends assembling an emergency kit that includes at least three days of water (1 gallon per person per day), nonperishable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, cash and a battery-powered or hand-cranked weather radio.
NOAA further advises having multiple ways to receive emergency warnings rather than relying solely on a cellphone. Options include weather radios, emergency alert systems, television and radio broadcasts, and trusted weather apps.