An area of low pressure off the coast of Portugal may transition into a tropical storm over the weekend.
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While most of the tropical storm attention this summer has been in the Pacific, there is still some activity in the Atlantic. This includes the northeastern Atlantic near Europe, which could actually see a named storm this weekend.
“The little low-pressure system west of Portugal is going to put on a show in the coming 24-36 hours,” said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in a post on X on Aug. 21.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the system: “A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles north-northeast of the Azores,” the hurricane center said.
“This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics on Saturday [Aug. 22] or early Sunday [Aug. 23] while it moves east-southeastward at 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain.”
If the system becomes the next storm in the Atlantic to reach tropical-storm strength, it will be given the fourth name on forecasters’ pre-picked naming list: Dolly.
So far this year, only three unremarkable tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic basin (Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal). Wind shear from El Niño and dry, dusty air from Africa have combined to “obliterate” other developing systems in the Atlantic, according to a Substack post from meteorologist Matt Lanza.
Unusual but not unheard of
“What makes this particularly interesting is its location,” according to a post on X from the U.K.-based Kernow Weather Team.
“Seeing the National Hurricane Centre highlighting potential tropical development this far northeast in the Atlantic and relatively close to western Europe is certainly unusual, although it isn’t completely unheard of,” the team writes.
Overall, Portugal can occasionally be affected by tropical or post-tropical cyclones, especially the Azores (which are part of Portugal) and, more rarely, the mainland.
Occasionally, tropical storms or hurricanes that develop somewhere in the Atlantic survive far enough east, or morph into potent post-tropical cyclones, to impact Portugal and the Azores with heavy rain, damaging winds and coastal flooding, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Historical examples
Historical examples include Hurricane Leslie in 2018, which struck mainland Portugal as a post-tropical cyclone after crossing the Atlantic, according to an article in the Conversation. Leslie was the strongest post-tropical cyclone to strike the Iberian Peninsula (which includes Spain and Portugal) since 1842.
“Leslie wandered across the subtropical Atlantic for about 3 weeks before finally hitting Portugal as an extratropical cyclone,” the hurricane center reported. One death was reported in Portugal (due to a fallen tree) and 27 people were injured. Flooding from its remnants also caused at least 10 deaths in southern France, the hurricane center reported.
Overall, NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks database shows 47 tropical storms and hurricanes have come within 60 miles of Portugal and the Azores islands since the 1950s, but no storms greater than a Category 2 hurricane.
No hurricane has ever made landfall on mainland Portugal, according to the historical database.
What else is going on in the Atlantic?
The hurricane center is also keeping an eye on an area of low pressure near Bermuda: “A weak area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the hurricane center said on the afternoon of Aug. 21.
“Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it drifts west-southwestward through Sunday [Aug. 23] and then turns northward early next week.”
Meteorologists are also watching for a weather system that could eject off the African coast over the next few days. Computer models are picking up the system, and some model runs have it turning into the first hurricane of the 2026 season over the central Atlantic.
Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.