Hungary’s opposition party Tisza poised to oust Viktor Orbán after 16 years, poll shows
BUDAPEST, Hungary — There’s a distinct smell of cold, damp stone inside the polling stations this weekend. It’s quiet, mostly. Peter Magyar’s center-right Tisza party is currently projected to win the parliamentary election here, which would effectively bring a close to 16 years of rule under Viktor Orbán. Orbán, of course, has been a central figure in the European right, known for his alliances with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
As of late Sunday night, with roughly 45% of ballots counted, the National Election Office is signaling that Tisza is on track to secure 135 seats in the 199-seat legislature. It’s a significant jump, considering they need 133 for a supermajority—the kind required to actually change the constitution and key laws. Actually, thinking about it, that’s a massive margin. Magyar, who positions himself as a moderate conservative, has really leaned into the public’s frustration with inflation, corruption, and the general state of public services. He called this election a “referendum” on where Hungary actually stands in the world. Or maybe he meant where it sits geographically—either way, the choice he presented was between the East and the West, between propaganda and what he calls honest discourse.
Orbán has held the reins since 2010. Four back-to-back victories tend to cement a certain level of control over the judiciary and media, which is why EU watchdogs haven’t exactly called the country a full democracy in quite some time. He’s been a trailblazer for the hard right, even claiming to have a hand in the policy-writing for Trump’s camp. You have to wonder what happens to that connection now—
Vice President JD Vance actually flew into Budapest right before the vote, trying to shore up support for his ally. It didn’t seem to work, if these numbers hold up. Putin was also vocal, supporting Orbán, who has spent years as the lone holdout in the EU regarding sanctions on Russia. The campaign leading up to this was intense. There were allegations of wiretapping, claims of “false flag” operations—it was all very chaotic, frankly. Even that alleged sex tape plot, which I haven’t quite parsed through fully.
Orbán looked tired when he spoke to reporters earlier. He called the campaign a “great national moment” and insisted, rather firmly, that he was there to win. He’s 62 now. And yet, after years of anchoring his platform on attacks against Zelenskyy and keeping ties with Moscow, the electorate seems to be looking elsewhere.
It’s a turning point. If these trends continue, the political map in Central Europe is going to look completely different by Monday morning. Or maybe not different, just… shifted.