A brewing tropical storm could bring high winds, heavy rain and big waves across the main islands over the weekend, starting the night of Aug. 14.
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Tropical storms are likely to form in oceans on opposite sides of the country on Thursday, Aug. 13 – and one could bring a rare direct hit on the Hawaiian Islands.
The National Hurricane Center expects a disturbance moving toward Hawaii, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C,” to become a tropical storm that could bring high winds, heavy rain and big waves across the main islands over the weekend, starting the night of Aug. 14. Authorities are urging island residents to prepare for potential flooding and high winds in advance of the storm, likely to be named Lala.
Hundreds of miles to the east of the potential tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Hernan formed in the eastern Pacific early on the morning of Aug. 13. It’s expected to turn to the southwest and weaken by Aug. 14 without affecting land.
In the Atlantic Ocean, the center is monitoring a tropical disturbance that could become a tropical storm on Aug. 13, as well as a second system farther to the east that could also become a disturbance later in the week. A third Atlantic system, Tropical Storm Cristobal, is moving eastward between Bermuda and the Azores and expected to dissipate, according to the center’s forecasts. As of Aug. 13, no direct impacts to the mainland United States were expected from the developing tropical storm.
What’s expected in Hawaii?
Meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including at the National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Weather Service, list the following potential developments from the night of Aug. 14 through the weekend across the Hawaiian Islands.
- The timing and amount of rain will depend on the track of the storm, but widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches are forecast. Up to 20 inches of rain is possible, with the highest amounts over windward areas of Maui and the Big Island.
- Rapidly rising streams and potential flash flooding from heavy rain are possible.
- A large easterly swell, with surf building along east-facing shores from east to west as the system approaches, could produce waves of 15 feet or larger into the weekend.
- Ahead of the storm’s arrival, the weather service is warning of dry conditions and increasing winds that could lead to a high wildfire risk on Friday, Aug. 14.
- Even if the system’s track shifts to the south, winds on its northern side could still impact the islands.
Forecasters expect Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C to form as a tropical storm by nighttime on Aug. 13.
Storm tracker: Map shows forecast path
What’s forecast in the Atlantic?
The National Hurricane Center sees a high probability of a tropical storm forming on Thursday, Aug. 13 or Friday, Aug. 14, from a weather disturbance moving westward between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The next name up on the hurricane center’s list is Dolly. What happens after that remains highly uncertain.
As the system moves closer toward the Lesser Antilles, upper-level winds are likely to be unfavorable for additional development, according to the center’s latest update.
The disturbance is “surrounded by a slug of dry air that’ll be a thorn in its side for much of this week,” said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist with WPLG Local 10 in Miami and former NOAA forecaster. “By the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean, a firehose of wind shear should give it a knockout punch, and it’s unlikely it survives the weekend,” Lowry wrote in an update on his Substack blog on Wednesday, Aug. 12.
While it will be good news for many if there aren’t high winds as the storm moves westward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, it could bring welcome rain to drought-stricken areas.
A tropical disturbance further to the east, a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, also is being monitored and could become a tropical depression by the weekend as it moves through the eastern and central Atlantic, the hurricane center said in its 11 p.m. update on Aug. 12.
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, covers violent weather, climate and the environment, among other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com.