Grapefruit-sized hail may become more common as climate warms

grapefruit-sized hail – A hailstorm in Springfield, Missouri, left ice chunks the size of baseballs—and even larger than grapefruits—smashing cars, wrecking homes, and injuring people and animals. New research published May 27 in Nature suggests that, in a warming world, hailstones m

On April 28, a fierce hailstorm battered Springfield, Mo., dropping ice chunks the size of baseballs—and in some cases larger than grapefruits—onto streets and roofs. The impact was immediate and brutal: cars were smashed, homes were wrecked, and both people and animals were injured.

Those kinds of headlines are showing up more often. And while warmer conditions might sound like they would help hail disappear—because ice falling from the sky might melt—researchers reporting May 27 in Nature say the story may go the other way. In many parts of the world. hailstones could grow larger and become more destructive. though the risk won’t be the same everywhere.

The study focused on a basic question: how hail forms and how it changes when the atmosphere changes. Hail forms when strong storm winds lift moisture high into cold clouds. There, water droplets freeze around tiny particles and grow until they become too heavy for the winds to hold up.

To estimate how that process might shift in a warmer world. researchers at Peking University in Beijing built a computer simulation that estimates how hailstones grow inside clouds based on atmospheric conditions. including temperature. moisture and wind. They tested the computer model on more than 14. 000 real-world hailstorms around the globe from 2014 to 2021. then used it to explore how those storms might change under future climate conditions.

The results point toward larger hail becoming more common, which would make hailstorms more damaging. The model shows two competing effects. Warmer air can hold more water vapor, giving hailstones more material to grow. But as the atmosphere warms. hailstones also travel through a deeper layer of air warm enough to melt them before they hit the ground.

In practice. Qinghong Zhang—an meteorologist at Peking University who led the research—said the difference between outcomes for big and small hail may be what matters most. “Large hailstones melt too, but they can still reach the ground as sizable chunks of ice,” she said. “Smaller hailstones are affected more. They may melt completely and turn into raindrops.”.

Still, the danger is not evenly distributed. The team found that places farther from the equator could get hit harder. while hail damage in tropical and subtropical regions may actually ease. One reason is that by the end of this century, temperatures are expected to rise more sharply at higher latitudes. The extra warming can strengthen updrafts inside storm clouds. allowing hailstones to grow larger. meteorologist Shiyi Zhang of Peking University said.

“This is the first study to make a quantitative estimate of hail hazard events worldwide,” Qinghong Zhang said. Climatologist Davide Faranda of the French National Center for Scientific Research in Paris called the work “an interesting and timely contribution to understanding how climate change may affect hail hazards. ” adding that it “combines physical reasoning with climate model projections.” Faranda also offered a caution: hail is extremely local. and global climate models cannot explicitly resolve hailstorms. That means studies built on broader weather patterns can carry uncertainty—especially when trying to produce quantitative results and regional forecasts.

In their response to that concern, the researchers say they’re not relying only on theory. Qinghong Zhang acknowledged uncertainties. but said the team tested its results against hailstorms recorded over the past several decades in China and the United States. Those checks, she said, suggest the uncertainties are manageable.

For now, the paper lands on a warning that feels less abstract than it did years ago. If temperatures keep rising, larger and more damaging hail will probably become a greater threat in many regions, Shiyi Zhang said.

In the meantime. even one measurement captured during fieldwork shows how close the danger can be to home: the hailstone shown in the study was collected in North Dakota on June 27. 2025. during the ICECHIP field campaign. It measures 32.45 millimeters across—about the diameter of a half dollar—and serves as a reminder that hail hazard starts small long before it ends up as something heavy enough to smash through the ordinary protections of everyday life.

hail climate change severe storms Nature hail hazards Springfield Missouri Peking University Davide Faranda weather modeling