Trump is putting himself center stage in the midterms with a Dallas convention, even as his low approval rating threatens to drag down GOP candidates.
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President Donald Trump’s endorsement record in the primaries is finishing out strong, highlighting his hold over Republican voters across the country.
WASHINGTON ‒ President Donald Trump has a solution for his party’s midterm woes as Republicans struggle to match Democrats’ election enthusiasm and face major headwinds to keep control of Congress ‒ more Trump.
Enter “Trumpapalooza,” the party’s first-ever midterm convention and the president’s clearest attempt yet to inject himself squarely at the center of the election and position himself as the party’s savior.
Never mind that Trump’s low approval rating has been an anchor weighing on the GOP, with the potential to drag down midterm candidates. The president and his advisers have suggested he’s the only one who can bring the MAGA faithful to the polls in large enough numbers to avoid a midterm catastrophe for Republicans.
“This is a turnout race,” Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters said in an interview with USA TODAY. “We need the president front and center.”
That strategy will be on display over two days in Dallas beginning Sept. 9 as Trump gathers his party for the final post-Labor Day push toward the Nov. 3 election. Trump is set to attend both days and deliver the headline speech on the final night. The event – dubbed “Trumpapalooza” by Gruters – is part of the president’s bid to further nationalize the election and wrap it around his own political brand, a tactic some Republicans question.
The convention risks tying Republican candidates more tightly to Trump at a time when some in the party believe they need distance from the president amid polls showing voters disapprove of his performance on everything from tariffs to the Iran war and inflation.
“One of the problems that the party is having right now is the president’s approval rating is not good,” said longtime GOP strategist Charlie Black. “So the more candidates can get the voters to focus on them and the issues that they’re promoting, and less on the president, the better in most states and most districts.”
The midterm showcase is also facing grumbling from some Republicans who say it is a distraction from meeting with voters. Several GOP candidates in close House and Senate races remain noncommittal about attending the convention, while some have made clear they won’t be there ‒ including Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is running in one of the most pivotal races to decide control of the Senate.
And there are questions about how many people will tune in to a show that may not be widely broadcast and is competing with the opening two nights of the NFL regular season.
Control of Congress hangs in the balance, and with it the potential for Democrats to put a check on the president’s final two years in office, making Trump’s bet on his own powers of persuasion a high-stakes gamble on the future of his presidency.
“If you think he’s a drag on the ticket due to low approval ratings, concern about his handling of the economy, and the ongoing war in Iran, centering the election on his performance seems especially risky,” said Joshua Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas.
Republicans look to overcome major enthusiasm gap
The GOP’s big Dallas pep rally came together over the last year at Trump’s urging. The president spoke to House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, about it shortly before Thanksgiving last year. “I said ‘That’s not a thing,’ and he said ‘make it a thing!’” Johnson said at a recent campaign event.
Republicans have never held a midterm convention, but Trump is eager to blunt Democrats’ momentum.
In a warning sign for Republicans, a series of off-year and special election victories for Democrats over the past year ‒ combined with Democrats consistently outperforming their 2024 margins ‒ has signaled a potential “blue wave” in November.
With Trump back in office, Democrats are eager to go to the polls.
An Economist/YouGov poll released last month found that 91% of registered Democrats definitely plan to vote, compared with 79% of registered Republicans. The survey found that voters favored a generic Democratic candidate for Congress over a Republican 46% to 40%, but the Democratic advantage expanded to 11 points among those who definitely plan to vote.
Trump has lamented that some of his voters may stay home because he’s not on the ballot.
“There’s a theory that I get the vote,” Trump said in an Aug. 30 Fox News interview. “I see it all the time, that when Trump’s on the ballot, they win. When he’s out of the ballot, the people don’t go to vote.”
The president has urged his supporters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot, and Johnson said Trump plans to use his convention speech in Dallas to make that case. “The president’s going to look right into the camera and say, ‘I am on the ballot,’” Johnson said. “Because even though his name isn’t … his administration, his legacy, the America-first agenda is.”
To fire up his base, Trump has increasingly attacked Democrats as “communists” following primary victories of Democratic socialists. GOP leaders intend to use the convention to highlight the Democratic Party’s leftward lurch, painting this cycle’s crop of Democrats as extreme and threats to America’s identity.
Republican strategist Whit Ayres said the convention can help galvanize low-propensity Trump voters who are less inclined to vote in the midterms than a presidential election. Trump still has strong support among Republicans. His power to influence the GOP base has been evident in the primaries, with the vast majority of candidates he endorsed prevailing.
“Right now, there is a substantial enthusiasm gap, with Democrats far more enthusiastic about voting in the midterms than Republicans,” Ayers said. “So, anything that can close that gap would help Republican candidates.”
The event is giving some Republicans pause, though, and Democrats say they welcome making the election a referendum on Trump. Trump’s approval rating has been stuck at 33% ‒ the lowest of his second term ‒ for three straight weeks, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
“They’re making it a referendum on him at a time when he’s extremely unpopular, even in red areas,” said Matt Corridoni, a Democratic strategist, predicting that the midterm convention will backfire for Republicans.
Democrats welcome convention they say tethers candidates to Trump
Former Michigan GOP congressman Fred Upton said Republican candidates in battleground races would benefit from showing independence from Trump. Upton knows from experience, having served 36 years in a purple seat repeatedly carried by Democratic presidents.
“You’re going to need to show some daylight, that you’re not joined at the hip in a swing district,” said Upton, who voted to impeach Trump before opting not to seek re-election in 2022 and endorsing Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024. “Going to join the chorus line in Texas, skipping your district events, is not going to be beneficial to a candidate in a swing district.”
Upton pointed to Trump’s low approval rating, including in many battleground states and districts that could decide control of Congress. An overwhelming majority of independents disapprove of Trump in recent polls, presenting a challenge for battleground GOP candidates trying to win over swing voters.
Some recent polls show the president is even underwater in Texas, where Democrats are hoping to win a Senate race for the first time in decades and plan to stage counterprogramming outside the convention. Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the average of Texas Senate polls.
“If you want to bring Donald Trump and parade him in Texas, I say have at it, he’s a wildly unpopular political figure,” said Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder, adding: “They should tie every one of their candidates to Donald Trump.”
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take over the Senate, which Republicans hold by a 53-47 seat advantage, and a gain of three seats in the House, which Republicans control 218-215.
Trump said in a recent podcast interview that promoting Paxton’s campaign will be a big focus of the convention. Control of Congress will come down to a few dozen races, he said, including the Texas race.
“Basically, this is really about 35 races – a big one is Texas – to keep control, to do well,” Trump said. “And that would be five senators and 30 congressmen, men and women. And I’m going to really work hard for this.”
Trump later told battleground candidates gathered for a Sept. 2 dinner in the White House Rose Garden that he planned to campaign in “every one of those 35 places” during the final weeks of the election.
“We’re going to see if we can get everyone elected,” he said.
Some Republicans in tight races plan to skip: ‘Attending was never a consideration’
Despite Trump’s efforts, some Republicans in tight contests have made the calculation they’re better off skipping the convention.
A spokesman for Collins, who is running for reelection in one of the most pivotal Senate races, confirmed to USA TODAY that the five-term senator will not attend the convention, citing her “longstanding practice” of not attending party conventions that are in election cycles. Collins will remain in Maine, where she is looking to again defy Maine’s Democratic leanings to win a sixth term.
A Politico survey of 70 Republican candidates and members of Congress found that most aren’t going to the convention or haven’t decided yet.
Freshman Rep. Tom Barrett, R-Michigan, is among those skipping. Barrett narrowly won his swing district’s seat in 2024 after losing as a candidate in 2022. “He’s in one of the toughest races in the country and his voters are in mid-Michigan, not Dallas,” Jason Cabel Roe, Barrett’s top campaign strategist, told USA TODAY. “Attending was never a consideration.”
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, said her time is better served in her district than Texas. “I have a district that I have to be in and take care of,” she told The Bulwark.
Another Republican member of Congress who doesn’t plan to attend the convention told USA TODAY that lawmakers in battleground districts would be better off campaigning at home. The member of Congress was granted anonymity to discuss concerns about the convention.
Democrats are happy to point out the dilemma facing their Republican opponents.
“Do you literally and figuratively hug him on stage and associate yourself with gas prices and the war in Iran? Or do you distance yourself and risk him telling his base not to show up for you?” Corridoni said.
But without an energized base, Republicans don’t stand a chance, said longtime pollster Frank Luntz.
“If Trump voters don’t vote, Republicans will lose,” Luntz said. “Putting him at the center of attraction won’t help with swing voters, but it will most certainly send a message to the base that it needs to participate.”
Ayres said the convention could prove successful if it pushes the right message.
“If the message is all about how to make life more affordable, how to ease the financial strain that many families are under today and how to give some hope that the war in Iran will not drag on indefinitely, then it could be a real benefit,” Ayres said.
Will anyone tune in?
Yet Republicans face a challenge just to get Americans to tune in to the convention.
While all the major television networks and cable news channels historically air party conventions during presidential years, it’s unclear which ones will air the RNC midterm convention. Fox News and right-leaning networks One America News Network and Newsmax are good bets to air all or most of the convention. But what about ABC, CBS, NBC and CNN?
None of the four television news providers responded to USA TODAY inquiries about whether they will air any of the convention live.
Republicans also have the misfortune of scheduling the convention for the first two dates of the NFL regular season, which always draws massive ratings and for the first time begins on a Wednesday night, followed by a game on Thursday night.
While Vice President JD Vance speaks in Dallas, millions of Americans will be watching the Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots on NBC. And when Trump speaks the next evening, the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams will be kicking off the league’s inaugural game in Australia.
Southern Methodist University political science professor Calvin Jillson said the convention is unlikely to alter the fundamental political dynamics of a difficult election cycle for the GOP.
“This is an attempt to sort of change the trajectory of the race,” Jillson said, adding: “I think it’s a long shot.”