A nationally representative survey and a new peer-reviewed study find that a substantial minority of Americans endorse parts of the “great replacement” conspiracy theory—and that support among white Americans rises with Fox News viewership, even after accounti
On a warm night at Nationals Park, three people climbed to the upper deck and unfurled a large banner that pointed to a white nationalist website. The message warned of “replacement” of whites by people of color and urged the deportation of 100 million people from the United States.
It was the kind of scene that lasts longer than a game. And for many Americans who watched it happen, the question wasn’t whether the banner represented an outlier. The question was whether the ideas behind it—wrapped in the “great replacement theory”—have moved beyond the margins.
That theory. a xenophobic conspiracy asserting that shadowy elites embrace permissive immigration policies to replace native-born white Americans with immigrants of color. has gained attention far beyond extremist forums. Prominent Republicans—including President Donald Trump. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. and conservative podcaster Tucker Carlson—have echoed ideas associated with the great replacement theory. Conservative media outlets, including Fox News, have also disseminated the concept to millions.
A new body of research now tries to measure how far those beliefs extend into the public.
In nationally representative polling, Americans were asked about support for key tenets of the great replacement theory. In the latest poll of 1. 000 Americans fielded in March 2026. 36% agreed with the statement: “Native-born Americans are losing their economic. political. and cultural influence in this country because of the growing population of immigrants.”.
A separate but closely related idea drew even wider attention: 26% agreed with the statement, “There are people who secretly work to make sure immigrants will eventually replace real Americans.”
Those views are concentrated. Support is most heavily found among white Americans. Republicans. conservatives. and people who self-identify as members of Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. More than 3 in 4 members of the MAGA movement and close to 6 in 10 Republicans agreed with the statement: “Immigrants invade and colonize the United States.”.
The study goes further, asking what might explain the spread—and it zeroes in on media exposure.
In a newly published, peer-reviewed study, researchers used nationally representative panel survey data tracking over 500 white Americans over time. The work found that white Americans who identified as Republican. who were conservatives. and who had negative views of people from other racial backgrounds were all more likely to express support for key tenets of the great replacement theory.
But the study also found an additional relationship that stood out: white Americans who watch Fox News were more likely to agree with the conspiracy theory.
The pattern is stark in the data. While 39% of all white Americans agreed that immigrants invade and colonize the U.S. 61% of white Americans who watch Fox News agreed with that view. The association remained significant even when the researchers took into account partisan identification, ideology, racial attitudes, and demographic characteristics. And because the researchers tracked the same people over time. they could observe changes tied to media habits—finding that the more Fox News programming a white American watched. the more likely they were to adopt the conspiracy theory.
The implications reach beyond the television dial.
The research builds on decades of work showing public opinion is shaped by media consumption. Recent scholarship—highlighting the influence of Fox News on public opinion—has found that exposure to the network is associated with more conservative attitudes about the COVID-19 pandemic. immigration policies. and criminal justice issues.
In this study’s framing, the great replacement theory is no longer confined to the fringes of society. When coverage elevates conspiratorial ideas. the researchers argue. endorsement can follow—especially when the theory makes immigration sound like an existential threat. tied to the preservation of one’s self and one’s country.
The stakes, in their view, are heightened by another factor: the conspiracy theory has been linked to instances of political violence directed at people of color and religious minorities.
As the United States heads toward its 250th birthday. immigration. race. and what it means to be American will remain central to political life. Disagreements over immigration policy may still allow room for compromise. Conspiracy theories, the researchers conclude, make it harder to build common ground.
Even before that debate fully settles. the facts from this new polling and study land with real force: a substantial minority of Americans endorse central claims of the “great replacement” theory. and among white Americans. Fox News viewership is associated with higher support—rising as viewing increases.
United States politics immigration race great replacement theory Fox News public opinion conspiracy theories elections Congress Trump Mike Johnson Tucker Carlson