With four matches to go, the race for the final IPL 2026 playoff berth is down to Rajasthan Royals, Punjab Kings, Kolkata Knight Riders, and Delhi Capitals after Gujarat Titans’ 89-run win over Chennai Super Kings eliminated CSK from contention and all but sec
The chase is down to the final thread—and for some teams, it’s already snapped.
Gujarat Titans’ 89-run win over Chennai Super Kings in Ahmedabad has eliminated CSK from playoff contention and almost sealed a top-two finish for themselves. Three teams are already confirmed for the playoffs: Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans, and Sunrisers Hyderabad. That leaves the last remaining berth to be fought over by Rajasthan Royals. Punjab Kings. Kolkata Knight Riders. and Delhi Capitals.
Gujarat Titans sit on 18 points with a net run rate of +0.695. but the win still wasn’t enough to surpass table-toppers’ net run rate—Royal Challengers Bengaluru remain ahead on NRR. RCB’s final league game comes today against SRH. To keep their position at the top, RCB only need to avoid a massive defeat against SRH in Hyderabad. A win would take them to 20 points and secure Qualifier 1.
SRH, even with qualification already locked, still have a possible route to change the order. To leapfrog Gujarat Titans and even secure a place in Qualifier 1. they would need an extraordinary margin of victory over RCB. If SRH bat first, they likely need to win by around 87–89 runs depending on RCB’s first-innings total being between 180–240. If SRH chase, they would need to chase down the target in under 12 overs. If that scenario lands—and RCB’s tournament order shifts—RCB could drop to third and would have to play the eliminator.
Rajasthan Royals are in the strongest position for the final playoff spot. They currently have 14 points with one game remaining against eliminated MI on Sunday. A victory at Wankhede would seal qualification on 16 points because none of the other teams still in contention can reach 16 points.
The margin of comfort for RR is also tied to the schedule. By the time RR play MI on Sunday afternoon, the outcomes of LSG vs PBKS will already be known, with Punjab Kings the closest challenger in the playoff race.
RR’s most ideal scenario looks simple: beat MI, PBKS lose to LSG, and DC beat KKR.
But the reason the equation still carries tension is RR’s modest net run rate of +0.083. A heavy defeat to MI, paired with wins for PBKS or KKR, could still complicate matters. In that situation. RR would be stuck on 14 points while PBKS and KKR would move to 15 points—meaning the final playoff spot would come down to the superior NRR between the two teams.
For that reason, RR’s loss—if it came—would actually benefit KKR and DC, since those teams would know exactly what they needed to do in the last league fixture.
Punjab Kings are still alive, even after five straight defeats. A win over already-eliminated LSG would take PBKS to 15 points, a total that could still be enough for fourth place. That would put Sunday’s two fixtures into “virtual knockout” territory for both RR and KKR.
PBKS’ biggest hope is less about what they control and more about what others do: MI would have to upset RR. If RR win and reach 16, PBKS can no longer finish above them. But if PBKS win while RR lose, then the focus shifts to what happens in KKR vs DC. Because those two teams face each other directly. a KKR win would complicate matters for PBKS; a win for DC would mean PBKS are through.
PBKS do, however, carry a key advantage into tie scenarios: they have a healthy net run rate advantage over RR and KKR, meaning ties on points could still favor them.
Their equation is clear: beat LSG, hope RR lose to MI, and hope DC beat KKR.
Kolkata Knight Riders are also hanging in the balance but with a different kind of pressure. KKR kept themselves alive by beating MI earlier in the week, and they now sit on 13 points with one game remaining. Their final league clash against DC has effectively become a knockout game.
A win would take KKR to 15 points and keep their hopes alive. A defeat would eliminate them.
Even if KKR beat DC, their survival would still depend on RR losing to MI. If RR win and reach 16, KKR cannot catch them.
KKR would also prefer PBKS to lose to LSG, because PBKS reaching 15 points would likely bring net run rate into the picture.
The one relief for KKR is that their net run rate finally turned positive. After the MI victory, KKR’s NRR is now +0.011, giving them a fighting chance if they end up tied on points.
Their equation is: hope PBKS lose to LSG, hope RR lose to MI, and beat DC.
Delhi Capitals remain mathematically alive, but their route looks the toughest. DC are anchored by a net run rate of -0.871, the worst among the contenders, and ties on points are unlikely to help them.
To stay alive, DC must beat KKR in the final league game. That would take them to 14 points. But even then, they would still need RR to lose to MI and PBKS to lose to LSG.
Under that scenario, DC could still require a major net run rate swing depending on margins.
In reality, DC likely need: a big win over KKR, RR to lose heavily to MI, and PBKS to lose. Anything short of that probably ends their campaign.
The playoff race is tightening by the hour, and for teams on the edge, every match now feels like a fork in the road—where one result can move you forward, and another can erase the work of a season.
IPL 2026 playoff qualification Rajasthan Royals Punjab Kings Kolkata Knight Riders Delhi Capitals Gujarat Titans Chennai Super Kings Royal Challengers Bengaluru Sunrisers Hyderabad net run rate Qualifier 1