Can Arch Manning lead Texas past No. 1 Ohio State
After a strong opener, Arch Manning faces intense pressure and opportunity against top ranked Ohio State.
In one of the most compelling early-season summits of prime NFL draft talent, one quarterback figures to yet again command the lion’s share of attention.
At least a half-dozen potential first-round picks for the 2027 class will be on the field when the Texas Longhorns square off against the Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday, with a horde of other likely early-to-mid-round prospects joining them. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, wide receiver Cam Coleman and offensive tackle Trevor Goosby all have earned universal acclaim as preseason All-Americans and projected top 10 selections, while Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is viewed by many as the best player in college football and next April’s premier draft prospect.
Of course, none will command the spotlight quite like Arch Manning. With his tantalizing tools, the Texas quarterback has become the focal point of what’s expected to be one of the richest incoming crops of quarterbacks in years, even as teams try to square the discrepancy between the consistency of his performance and his overall capability.
His inverse – and perhaps an even more puzzling draft case – will be on the opposing sideline.
Whereas Manning navigated turbulence for much of his debut season as a starter, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin never left much question about his efficiency after opening against Texas. His 77% completion rate stood as the third-highest mark in Football Bowl Subdivision history, and he finished second only to Heisman Trophy winner and 2026 No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza in passer rating (177.5) among full-time starters.
Yet for all his stability as a passer, the lone returning Heisman Trophy finalist presents a volatile range of possible outcomes in the NFL draft.
Sayin isn’t mentioned in the same breath as Manning or Oregon’s Dante Moore as a favorite to be a top-five selection, nor has he been widely grouped among in the next tier of passers that seems to carry less of a consensus. Of course, the ascent of Mendoza and fellow 2026 first-rounder Ty Simpson should prove that nothing is settled seven-plus months out from the draft. Another prolific campaign in which the junior smooths out the few issues that surfaced in his inaugural season at the helm could vault his standing with NFL decision-makers.
Still, those persistent and problematic questions of his pro projection could prove difficult for Sayin to answer.
Julian Sayin NFL draft scouting report: Ohio State QB’s strengths and weaknesses
It doesn’t take long for Sayin’s biggest assets or his greatest liabilities to present themselves.
Precision and decisiveness are the hallmarks of the Southern California native’s game. His accuracy holds to all levels of the field, as he led the FBS with a 62% completion rate on deep passes, according to Pro Football Focus, while he tallied an average depth of target of just under 9 yards.
Sayin also has remained a discerning presence behind center, throwing just eight interceptions and seldom putting the ball in harm’s way.
“I think for Julian, you look for some traits that are extraordinary about him,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said at Big Ten Media Days in July. “I think the first thing you recognize is his accuracy. What you don’t see, but I see, is his intelligence level. He can handle high levels of information. He’s highly, highly motivated. He’s really embraced this leadership role.”
Yet much of the prevailing draft narrative on Sayin remains fixed to his pedestrian physical traits.
Sayin is listed at 6-1 and 214 pounds. Those numbers – perhaps generous, as schools tend to be with their figures – are a touch below what Simpson measured in at the combine and would surely make him one of the league’s more modestly built quarterbacks. And while he’s been able to reliably access the deep game thanks to his anticipation and touch, his pure pass velocity might not measure up to other prospects in this class.
Yet Sayin’s biggest question mark and opportunity for growth might be in his response to pressure.
That concern didn’t pop up in the opening portion of the Buckeyes’ season. Through his first 12 games, Sayin took just six sacks. But in the Big Ten Championship Game loss to Indiana and ensuing College Football Playoff quarterfinal exit against Miami, he was sacked five times apiece. Sayin also threw three interceptions in that span.
Compounding the problem is Sayin’s discomfort breaking structure. A pocket passer to his core, Sayin maintains a keen awareness of when the pass rush is trying to close in and will try to sidestep oncoming defenders. But he can struggle to embrace chaos when a play is being thrown off schedule. Pro Football Focus credited Sayin with just 11 scrambles in 2025 against 391 passing attempts.
“We know that that’s the X-factor that has to show up this year,” Day said in the spring. “He’s aware of that and has been working hard in the offseason.”
The early trend line has been encouraging. On a fourth-and-goal in the second quarter of the season opener against Ball State, Sayin notched his career rushing touchdown by climbing the pocket and taking off up the middle.
The Ohio State problem
Operating within the Buckeyes’ prolific scheme has no doubt been a boon to Sayin and his predecessors. Yet it’s also complicated their pro evaluations.
Sayin has had the benefit of working not only with Smith, but also Carnell Tate, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The two receivers have conferred a significant advantage with their knack for hauling in contested catches when they haven’t left a defender in the dust.
That dynamic has amplified questions about whether Sayin is truly an offensive catalyst or more of a distributor who reflects his surroundings rather than changes them.
He’s far from the first quarterback under Day, however, to face questions about transcending the Buckeyes’ scheme.
In the lead-up to the 2023 NFL Draft, C.J. Stroud seemed to have a dichotomy similar to Sayin’s: immaculate within structure but questionable when outside of it or dealing with pressure. His predecessor, Justin Fields, puzzled evaluators with the infrequency with which he was forced to make a secondary or tertiary read.
Sayin shouldn’t be placed on either quarterback’s trajectory, especially given that he’s working under a different play-caller in Arthur Smith, a former NFL head coach and offensive coordinator who could better position his pupil for the pro game. But it’s clear that a talent-rich and passer-friendly system helping accentuate Sayin’s strengths also will create several unknowns whenever he enters the draft.
Julian Sayin’s NFL draft stock could be unpredictable
Rather than any former Buckeye quarterback, the most notable touchstone for Sayin’s draft stock could be Simpson.
The comparison isn’t a perfect one. The former Alabama quarterback wasn’t anywhere nearly as consistent as Sayin with his ball placement, and his lone season as a starter loomed over his evaluation. Simpson was also much more comfortable than Sayin in escaping the pocket to take off as a runner or buy second chances.
But the rough-sketch profile is similar: a modestly built pocket passer trying to convince teams that his pedestrian physical tools wouldn’t be a significant hindrance.
Simpson’s attributes sparked widespread skepticism after his uneven season, but he ended up being taken No. 13 overall by the Los Angeles Rams. A team that placed such a heavy premium on Matthew Stafford’s ability to attack the entire field seemed like an odd landing spot for a young signal-caller who has more limitations. But Simpson’s selling points were enough to hook Sean McVay and Les Snead into buying into him as a much-needed long-term investment behind center.
With an entire season ahead of him – and the ability to stay in college for up to two additional two years if he chooses – Sayin still has plenty of time to sway minds and perhaps even end up being taken in a comparable range to Simpson. If he doesn’t make strides against pressure and in standing up to top competition, however, he could have a difficult time building a compelling case to be an early pick.
What is clear amid the uncertainty: There’s significant work left to do, starting with Saturday’s showing against Texas.