A supply-chain read from Ming-Chi Kuo suggests Apple could introduce the iPhone Fold in September, but with limited early inventory—meaning sales may lag months behind the launch, following the pattern seen with the iPhone X in 2017.
If you’re already budgeting for Apple’s next big flex—the iPhone Fold—there’s a quiet risk in the way the device may be rolled out. It could be unveiled in September, but actually getting one could take much longer than launch day hype suggests.
Ming-Chi Kuo. an analyst at TF Securities. points to supply-chain indications that the iPhone Fold may not have enough inventory to go on sale immediately after launch. In his view. the iPhone Fold could mirror what happened with the iPhone X: a familiar iPhone reveal alongside other major releases. followed by a delay that only shows up once orders begin.
In 2017, the iPhone X was introduced alongside the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus. But the buying window didn’t open right away. Preorders began late in October, with sales arriving in early November. Kuo argues the supply chain is lining up a comparable launch pattern for the iPhone Fold.
The numbers he cites are stark. Kuo says the supply chain appears to have a target of producing about 7 to 8 million iPhone Fold units in the second half of 2026. But for the third quarter, production is reportedly only between half a million and a million units. That means the earliest months after launch could be tight—even if the announcement itself comes as planned.
Those production expectations also underline the scale of the comparison. Kuo says the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will see about 20 million units produced, a stark gap versus the early iPhone Fold run.
The likely reason isn’t marketing—it’s manufacturing complexity. Kuo links the delay with production issues that show up when a phone introduces new hardware at a pace the supply chain has to catch up with. With the iPhone X in 2017. production was also low—about 1 million units in the third quarter—due to the model bringing many new features that earlier devices didn’t have. The list included the OLED all-screen design and Face ID biometric security.
Kuo says the iPhone Fold faces similarly challenging new-tech hurdles. He points to the folding display and the well-documented rumors about a problematic hinge. In other words, it’s not just about building a new device. It’s about building it reliably enough at volume to meet demand without rushing past the parts that are still proving themselves on the line.
Kuo’s standing in the market matters here. He has a documented history of accuracy when it comes to Apple, partly because of his supply-chain checks. While rumors about iPhone Fold delays have circulated before. his reports have generally been considered closer to the reality of what production and timing can actually support.
Apple iPhone Fold Ming-Chi Kuo TF Securities supply chain iPhone X iPhone 18 Pro production hinge folding display launch delay