fewer WARN – U.S. employers filed fewer mass layoff notices in May—250 notices affecting 32,000 workers—while the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 172,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.3% for the third straight month of strong growth. Experts say the labor ma
For a third straight month, the U.S. jobs picture looked steady—until you look at what companies were preparing to do next.
In May, major employers issued the fewest layoff announcements so far this year. In the same month, the government reported strong employment numbers, and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. The contrast is striking: while the labor market added jobs. companies also continued to file WARN notices that can signal what’s coming for workers later.
Job growth remained firm as May delivered 172,000 jobs added, according to the latest numbers released from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The agency also revised job data from previous months, with both March and April showing more job figures compared to the initial numbers.
At the same time, WARN filings tracked through Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act reporting showed a downward trend since January. In January, over 400 notices totaled over 40,000 job cuts. By May, USA TODAY tracked 250 mass layoff notices affecting 32,000 workers.
Air travel became the clearest human example within those filings. Spirit Airlines submitted 11 layoff filings reported in several states, affecting nearly 7,000 workers in May. The airline announced a shutdown and ceased all flight operations in early May.
WARN notices are filed by businesses with at least 100 employees, and they represent layoff announcements under the WARN Act. Passed in 1988. the law requires employers with 100 or more full-time workers to provide at least 60 days’ notice before mass layoffs or plant closures—meant to give workers time to prepare and search for new employment.
In the first five months of the year, businesses that meet the act’s threshold made nearly 2,000 layoff announcements affecting more than 166,000 workers. That total is about 13% fewer reported job cuts compared with the same period last year.
Even with the decline in notices, experts warn the picture isn’t as comfortable as the headline hiring data suggests. “Right now, the labor market is precariously stable,” said Cory Stahle, senior economist at Indeed. “It’s stable in terms of we’ve reached kind of a balancing point. but it’s not clear as to whether or not that balancing point is actually a tipping point.”.
Stahle tied the current “pretty good” job market to underlying risk and uncertainty, including the ongoing Iran war and higher energy and gas prices. He also pointed to a divide in who benefits from hiring.
Workers who are already employed and are in growing sectors are finding jobs relatively easily, he said. Those who are unemployed—or outside the industries adding momentum—are struggling to find work. At the same time. federal data show the number of long-term unemployed Americans is on the rise even as job growth beats expectations.
There’s also a timing issue built into the WARN system itself. WARN filings collected by USA TODAY come from 43 state labor departments and the District of Columbia. But because reporting systems vary by state, filings may appear weeks after layoffs are announced. Companies may also amend or withdraw notices, and totals in the tracker could change as new records are updated.
Seven states—Arkansas, Hawaii, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming—do not offer public data access or have incompatible data formats. That means the visible totals depend on what’s available through each state’s reporting system.
Still, experts treat WARN notices as a leading indicator of large-scale job cuts. They can offer an early estimate of the timing and size of workforce reductions that may not take effect for up to two months after announcements.
That timing matters because workers may experience the consequences after the job report has already calmed markets. Stahle said it’s “more important than ever” to watch WARN notices because a significant pickup could quickly offset the job gains.
California continued to lead the nation in layoffs recorded through WARN filings, followed by Washington and Texas.
Taken together, the month’s numbers tell a familiar story—but with a warning underneath. May’s hiring strength and fewer WARN filings may suggest stability. but the labor market’s uneven footing. the rise in long-term unemployment. and the possibility of late-emerging layoffs keep the balance from feeling secure.
WARN Act mass layoffs job growth unemployment rate 4.3% Bureau of Labor Statistics Indeed Cory Stahle Spirit Airlines labor market Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act