Our picks and predictions for the 2026 NFL season
Joe Rivera, Chris Bumbaca and Adam Kaufman break down their predictions for the 2026 NFL season on the latest episode of the Sports Seriously NFL Vodcast.
The 2026 NFL season is finally here, and fantasy football managers are beginning to get their teams ready for potential championship runs.
That process will start, in earnest, as fantasy managers face critical start ’em, sit ’em decisions in NFL Week 1.
As most fantasy managers know, Week 1 start-sit decisions are among the hardest of any season. There simply isn’t any real data on team performance yet, so it’s hard to identify which defenses will be best to fade and stream against.
So, until a large enough sample size is built, fantasy football aficionados will have to focus more on projecting what will happen. Successfully achieving that goal can be the difference between starting the fantasy season with a win and putting oneself behind the 8-ball to open the campaign.
Who can you start and sit in fantasy football for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season? USA TODAY Sports outlines eight players to start and eight to sit.
Fantasy football players to start in Week 1
Quarterbacks
Goff has been one of fantasy football’s most consistent producers at quarterback over the last three years, logging at least 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns in each season. The Saints could be better than most expect in 2026, but even so, they will have a tough time containing a potent passing attack featuring Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Herbert was pressured a league-high 288 times in 2025, per Pro Football Focus, but still posted a strong fantasy season. He should be better protected in 2026 as tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt return from injury and rookie Jake Slaughter serves as an upgrade at center. The Cardinals had a 31.6% pressure rate last year – which ranked 26th in the league, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats – so they may have trouble rattling Herbert in this matchup.
Running backs
Josh Jacobs’ placement on the commissioner’s exempt list has opened the door for Lloyd to serve as the top running back for the Packers, at least early in the season. Some may balk at starting the 2024 third-round pick, who has only handled six career carries for 15 yards thanks to a series of injuries, but he has a favorable matchup against a Vikings defense that allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to RBs last season. That should help make him a quality RB2 for Week 1.
The Seahawks allowed a league-high 97 receptions to running backs last season. That could make both Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson solid flex plays against Seattle, but Stevenson has the higher floor after averaging 10.8 yards per reception last year. He may not do a lot on the ground against a solid Seahawks run defense, but his abilities as a goal-line hammer and a pass-catcher should make him a good flex, especially in PPR formats.
Wide receivers
- Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
The Colts traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Pittsburgh Steelers during the offseason. That should open the door for Downs to be a high-volume safety valve across from Alec Pierce and position the 25-year-old for a good outing against a Ravens team that allowed the second-most receptions to wide receivers during the 2025 NFL season.
The Bengals made major improvements to their defense during the offseason, but it may take time for the unit to gel, especially considering the early-season struggles Zac Taylor’s squad has endured in recent seasons. The Buccaneers will also need to throw a lot to keep pace with Cincinnati’s strong offense, so that could allow Godwin to emerge as a productive WR2 in this matchup.
Tight end
The Lions are set to begin the season without their top two safeties, Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph. That could open the door for Johnson to frequently find space over the middle of the field while the absence of New Orleans’ No. 2 receiver, rookie Jordyn Tyson, could also allow Johnson to soak up a lot of targets in a favorable-looking matchup.
Defense/special teams
The Browns named Deshaun Watson their starting quarterback. The soon-to-be-31-year-old has been sacked an average of 3.7 times across 19 games with Cleveland while averaging just one passing touchdown per game. The Jaguars should have plenty of opportunities to get after Watson and force mistakes, making them a quality streamer in Week 1.
Fantasy football players to sit in Week 14
Quarterbacks
- Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Purdy is facing a tough matchup against a Rams defense that added Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald and Trent McDuffie to the fold, among others, during the offseason. If that wasn’t enough to scare fantasy managers off Purdy, he also has a new-look receiving corps, highlighted by Mike Evans and De’Zhaun Stribling, and is set to play his season opener in Australia. It’s best to wait and see what Purdy can do before starting him.
The Broncos have performed well against Mahomes in recent seasons, as he hasn’t logged multiple touchdowns in a game against them since 2022. Mahomes is also coming off a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee, so he may need to shake off some rust as he returns to the field. That could lead the Chiefs to operate a run-heavy attack with Kenneth Walker III, which would cap Mahomes’ ceiling.
Running backs
Price’s fantasy outlook should inspire long-term excitement, but he may not get a massive workload off the bat. The Seahawks didn’t play him in the preseason, so they may split touches between the first-round rookie and George Holani as the Notre Dame product acclimates to the NFL. Add in that the Patriots allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game (FPPG) to running backs last season and Price has a lower floor/ceiling combination than most would hope to see.
Fantasy circles have been excited about Brooks, but he may start the 2026 season slowly. The Panthers seem content to ease the 2024 second-round pick into action after he missed most of his first two seasons to knee injuries, so Brooks and Chuba Hubbard (if healthy) could end up in a frustrating time-share to start the season.
Wide receivers
Harrison hasn’t yet broken out as much as many have expected, as the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has averaged just 3.6 catches and 51.5 receiving yards across his 29 NFL games to date. He will have a difficult matchup against a Chargers defense that allowed the ninth-fewest FPPG to receivers last season, so it’s probably best to leave him on the bench in Week 1.
Tate failed to catch a pass during the preseason. He should eventually develop enough chemistry with Cam Ward to become a fantasy threat, but trusting him in Week 1, even against the Jets, is a risk fantasy managers probably shouldn’t take.
Tight end
Kelce performed well against the Broncos last season, recording a season-best nine catches for 91 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 11, but trusting him in the 2026 opener seems risky. Not only is Kelce another year older, but Mahomes is coming off an injury, which could push the Chiefs into a more ground-dominant approach in Week 1. Kelce could still be a top-10 TE if he can find the end zone, but he has a very low floor otherwise against a top-tier defense.
Defense/special teams
- Buffalo Bills (at Houston Texans)
The Bills had one of the NFL’s worst run defenses last season and face a Texans offense that will want to pound the rock with David Montgomery. Some may be inclined to play Buffalo’s stop unit given the issues C.J. Stroud had during the postseason, but this simply isn’t a good matchup for the Bills.
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