Will Bijan – Atlanta begins a new era with Kevin Stefanski’s arrival and a star skill group—Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts—yet the entire offense hinges on whether Michael Penix or Tua Tagovailoa can finally stay healthy and deliver at NFL level.
The Atlanta Falcons didn’t just fall short last season—they got stuck in mediocrity again. They won eight games for the second straight year. repeating the pattern that already cost Arthur Smith his job after three consecutive seven-win campaigns. Now the franchise is staring at consequences once more under Raheem Morris. with another coaching change leaving it on to its eighth full-time coach of the 21st century.
This offseason’s loudest name is Kevin Stefanski. and the Falcons’ hope is simple: if he can revive their offense. he can also rescue his own reputation. The talent is there—Bijan Robinson. Drake London and Kyle Pitts form the kind of trio Stefanski would’ve envied during his time in Cleveland. The problem is the same problem that followed him there: quarterback uncertainty.
Atlanta’s quarterback room looks stacked on paper and messy in reality. Michael Penix, 26, is still not medically cleared after suffering another ACL injury last Week 11. Tua Tagovailoa is the other option. but his Falcons arrival came only because the Dolphins were willing to take on a record dead cap hit of $99.2 million to move him.
The numbers that pushed Miami to make that decision are brutal. In 2025, Tagovailoa threw 15 interceptions in 14 games and tumbled to 26th in EPA per play among quarterbacks. Penix hasn’t been a clean answer, either. In limited work last season. the second-year pro finished 21st in EPA per play. and he managed only nine passing scores in nine starts. It was only after Penix went down that Kirk Cousins arrived and unlocked the Falcons’ passing attack—Atlanta went 5-3 the rest of the way. and Pitts’ career suddenly looked alive again. That improvement came even though Drake London missed Weeks 12-15 with injury.
None of this means the Falcons can’t build something with Stefanski. It does mean his first real test will be whether he gets a stable quarterback situation fast enough to let his skill players take over. For fantasy purposes. Tagovailoa might be the ever-so-slightly preferred option because his “floor” is clearer. while Penix still offers a higher ceiling if he’s cleared for Week 1. In one-quarterback leagues. though. neither is likely to be broadly relevant—neither runs. and even 25 passing scores probably aren’t enough to consistently push production to the next tier. never mind 30.
If London stays healthy. that’s where the offense can still make sense even before the quarterback question is fully solved. London is a receiver who keeps finding his way to impact. Although injuries have limited him to just one 1,000-yard season in four tries, he has never posted fewer than 866 yards. He has 16 touchdowns over his past 29 games. and 2025 was the first time he finished top 10 in yards per route run and top 10 in average PPR points. In Stefanski’s system. there’s reason to expect him to settle in the WR6-8 fantasy range with room to grow.
Target competition doesn’t appear to be the issue in 2026. The Falcons don’t have a clear “cavalry” opposite London. with Olamide Zaccheaus and Jahan Dotson projected as a composite “WR2” kind of presence. Neither veteran profiles as a weekly fantasy priority, but Zachariah Branch—picked No. 79 overall—can’t be ignored.
Branch’s frame is modest at 5-foot-9, 177 pounds, and that size likely channels him toward designed and gadget touches early. But it’s also what he thrived at in Georgia. Stefanski has said there is “(no) limit” to where the rookie can line up. and the expectation is immediate “easy button” looks out of the slot. For the start of the season, that puts Branch on PPR watch lists.
All of this receiver talk can’t bury the reality that Kyle Pitts remains Atlanta’s clearest No. 2 weapon in the passing game. Pitts returned to a production profile he teased as a 2021 rookie. and in best-ball drafts he has been taken in the TE8 range. That sounds low—until you remember what happened when London played. In 2025, when London was on the field, Pitts averaged 4/42 across 12 games. When London sat, Pitts’ numbers exploded to 7/84.
Now the key difference: the quarterback who supported those most valuable targets for Pitts is no longer there. That shifts Pitts back into boom/bust territory. especially with the offseason chatter that he might not even remain in Atlanta. For now, he does seem likely to play on his $15.045 million franchise tender rather than be traded. It still feels like a scandal that Pitts had so little involvement from 2022-24. but the Falcons are at least open to the idea that 2025 was the outlier.
The Falcons’ running game is carrying its own version of uncertainty, but the spotlight is unmistakably on Bijan Robinson. Robinson finished as the RB2 by average PPR points last season. even after losing 143 carries to Tyler Allgeier. a perennial nuisance. Even more revealing: Robinson and Allgeier had the same number of carries inside the five-yard line, at just seven. Christian McCaffrey’s 18 inside-the-five carries over the season was the kind of volume gap that turned him into the RB1 overall finish.
So it’s at least good news for Robinson owners that Allgeier has finally departed for Arizona. But the replacement story isn’t identical. Brian Robinson Jr. is set to fill the role of an Allgeier-type back. and he comes with a new coaching staff and head coach in Stefanski. Stefanski has overseen monster early-down seasons for Nick Chubb in Cleveland. and he has also shown a willingness to target his backs in the passing game. That combination has Robinson battling with Jahmyr Gibbs for RB1 overall status, even with Brian Robinson Jr. in the mix.
For Brian Robinson Jr. specifically, reaching 140 carries—Allgeier averaged over the past two years—looks unlikely. This is a new coaching staff and a new front office with no holdover allegiance to “the way we’ve always done things” in Atlanta. Brian will almost certainly spell Robinson on less-important early downs. but he doesn’t look like a true vulture back inside the 10-yard line.
That keeps Brian Robinson Jr. from having standalone fantasy value. It also means his role becomes most visible only if something goes wrong: he would become part of a committee if Robinson goes down with injury. Brian has never been a featured player in the passing game. and while he’s a legitimate contingency option. he’s not positioned as a league-winning insurance back.
For the wider season picture, Atlanta’s betting market suggests mediocrity is still the expectation—just with a path toward more.
In 2026, the Falcons’ win total at DraftKings is 6.5, and the pick here is Over (-115). The schedule includes a division that’s traditionally considered the league’s softest. and a Warren Sharp rating places Atlanta’s slate as the 20th most difficult. The start matters, too: the Falcons begin the year with @PIT, then host CAR, then travel to @GB and @NO.
After that comes the tougher stretch, with the schedule not truly easing until around Christmastime. Still, the argument for the over is anchored in history: Atlanta has not won fewer than seven games since 2020. The belief is that the Falcons can squeeze out 7-8 wins to offset defensive rough patches. driven by offensive firepower and Stefanski’s play-calling acumen.
It’s an optimistic bet, but it’s also a tight one. For all the Falcons’ excitement about Robinson. London and Pitts. the thing that decides how much Stefanski can truly fix is whether the quarterback health question finally stops moving the goalposts—and whether Week 1 brings certainty instead of another scramble.
Atlanta Falcons Kevin Stefanski Raheem Morris Michael Penix Tua Tagovailoa Bijan Robinson Drake London Kyle Pitts Brian Robinson Jr. fantasy preview 2026 win total NFL offseason