Falling jet-fuel supplies in Europe have prompted Lufthansa to cut thousands of flights, raising fears of longer disruptions for summer travel.
Jet-fuel supply in Europe is falling.. Lufthansa, Germany’s largest airline, has announced that it will cancel 20,000 flights between May and October to save on fuel.. The question is: how much is left in Europe, and how bad can it get?. One of the problems with answering that question is that unlike gas and electricity, oil markets are opaque, and gathering up-to-date data is somewhat of a dark art.. Eurostat reports country data, but the
last reliable figures are from December 2025.. And there is no standardised European process for collecting and sharing real-time data on stocks and flows oil and fuel.. Policymakers tasked with dealing with this crisis have to rely on patchy indicators such as weekly refining data, delayed national reserve data, multi-year averages and trade flows to make sense of the situation.. To fill the info-gap, EU ministers announced plans last month to launch a fuel observatory
that will track stocks and flows, starting with jet fuels.. That may help improve coordination and make it easier to move supplies between countries if shortages emerge.. But better data alone will not be enough to prevent potential physical shortages at some airports, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns become more likely if disrupted Gulf supply cannot be largely replaced.. To get a better picture of the scale of the problem, below is a
brief explanation of some of the main questions.. What is jet fuel (exactly)?. Jet fuel is a highly-refined, tightly controlled grade of kerosene derived from crude oil.. It’s less dense than diesel, allowing it to flow faster through the engine, and it stays liquid at super low temperatures.. Jet A-1, which is used in Europe, freezes around minus 47 degrees celsius.. Unlike petrol for cars, jet fuel is designed for continuous combustion under high pressure
rather than spark ignition, which means it must not contain contaminants.. Long story short: planes don’t fly without it.. How exposed is Europe compared to Asia and the US?Of the three regions, the US is best insulated as a major producer and exporter of jet fuel.. Fuel-import reliant countries in the Asia-Pacific is the most exposed to current supply disruptions.. China remains protected for now.. But Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and the Philippines are all very
exposed.. India has a lot of fuel refineries, but they rely on imported Gulf crude to run.. Short-term risk-wise, Europe sits in the middle.. It consumes more jet fuel than it produces and covers the gap (around 500,000 barrels a day) with imports.. But EU countries are proportionally less reliant on crude from the Gulf, with more supply coming from the US and Norway, leaving their refineries less exposed in the short term.So, how reliant
is Europe on supply from the Gulf?. Very.. Europe’s jet fuel imports average around 500,000 barrels per day.. The Middle East accounted for 75 percent of that before Gulf supply was lost, or around 375,000 barrels per day according to IEA estimates.. Around 40 percent of total jet fuel imports bound for Europe pass through the strait.. So far Europe has replaced only just over half of the lost supply, the IEA said.. Can’t the
US step in?To a degree.. US firms doubled jet fuel exports to Europe in April, sending around four million barrels to Europe in April, according to Kpler.. But that still covers only part of the gap left by lost Gulf supply.. Even if all additional US ships would go to Europe, it would only replace half of what is lost by the war, the IEA estimates.. There is also a technical problem.. Europe uses Jet
A1 fuel, which has a lower freezing point (-47 degrees) than the Jet A grade used in the US (-40 degrees).. Last week, the EU told airlines they can swap fuels to ease shortages.. This can be done safely “if managed properly” the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has since said, but it also warned in a newly drafted safety guidance that mixing fuels could create safety risks, especially in colder regions.. Can Europe scale
up production of Jet A1 fuel if needed?Less and less.. Since 2009, 35 out of almost 100 refineries have closed, according to the European Fuels Manufacturers association FuelsEurope, or 20 percent of total capacity.. Europe still produces 1.1 million barrels per day, said the IEA.. But it consumes 1.6 million barrels per day, rising to 1.8 million in the summer.. Some major refiners around Rotterdam and Antwerp can switch output and increase jet fuel production
“to a limited degree” giving Europe a bit of extra buffer.. But the IEA has said many European refineries are already running close to maximum capacity.. That means most of the shortfall will have to be covered with imports from elsewhere.. Has Europe ever run out of physical jet fuel?
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