Eswatini’s meteorological forecast points to warmer days and nights, normal-to-above-normal rainfall, and advice to watch for extremes and frost.
Reading Time: 2 minutes THE country is expected to experience a milder winter season, with fewer extremely cold conditions than usual and a possibility of rainfall.. This is according to the seasonal winter forecast for May, June and July (MJJ) released by the Eswatini Meteorological Services.. Meteorologist Sifiso Nzalo said the MJJ seasonal forecast was generally expected to be favourable, although communities were advised to remain alert to sudden extreme weather conditions.. Nzalo said El
Niño signals were beginning to emerge and while the immediate impacts might be moderate, continued developments into the following seasons could lead to greater disruptions.. He added that daily weather bulletins remained the main source of actionable alerts for the country.. He further stated that the predictors used in the forecast placed most parts of the country under normal-to-above-normal rainfall conditions during the forecast period.. Temperatures are also expected to be warmer than the average
winter conditions usually experienced across the country.. “Overall, above-normal temperatures are likely during most of the winter season.. The predictors used place most parts of the country under above-normal daytime (maximum) and night-time (minimum) temperatures during the forecast period, with temperatures expected to range between 5°C and 28°C,” he said.. Asked which regions were likely to experience the biggest temperature drops, Nzalo said the Highveld was expected to record the coldest conditions, especially during the
night and early morning hours.. “On average, minimum temperatures are expected to range between 5°C and 15°C, while maximum temperatures are expected to range between 20°C and 28°C during the peak winter months,” he explained.. He also noted that extreme temperatures were still possible and would be identified through short-range forecasts.. Speaking on the unusual weather patterns influencing this winter’s outlook, Nzalo said global climate drivers, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), were currently in
a neutral phase.. However, forecasts indicated a possible shift towards El Niño conditions later in the year.. Although winter is generally dry, he said changes in these large-scale climate systems could influence temperature patterns and increase the likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions.. Meanwhile, the warmer-than-average winter temperatures expected this season may provide some relief to farmers by reducing severe cold stress in certain areas.. However, the Eswatini Meteorological Services has warned that frost occurrences and prolonged
dry conditions could still negatively affect crop production, particularly rain-fed agriculture.. Nzalo said while milder winter temperatures might create more favourable conditions for some crops, the season would still present challenges for farmers who depend heavily on natural rainfall.. “Dry spells combined with frost may damage crops and slow growth, especially in vulnerable areas,” he said.. He explained that rain-fed crops were expected to be the most affected by this winter’s conditions because they depend
entirely on rainfall for moisture.. As a result, they are more vulnerable to below-average rainfall and fluctuating temperatures.. Nzalo stated that frost could damage young plants and reduce crop yields if farmers were not properly prepared.. He advised farmers to regularly monitor short-range weather forecasts and frost advisories issued during the season.. According to Nzalo, this would help farmers make informed decisions on planting, irrigation and protecting crops from frost damage.. He further encouraged farmers
to adopt measures that help conserve soil moisture during dry periods.. These include proper land management and timely farming practices aimed at reducing losses caused by harsh winter conditions.. Despite the forecast for warmer temperatures, Nzalo cautioned that winter weather remained unpredictable and urged farmers to remain prepared for possible cold spells and dry conditions that could affect crop production across the country.
Eswatini winter forecast, seasonal MJJ outlook, El Niño signals, frost advisories, rain-fed agriculture, Highveld temperatures, daily weather bulletins