NOAA’s seasonal tropical outlooks arrive as odds of a strong El Niño move above 80% for this summer, while drought and wildfire conditions worsen across parts of the U.S. Officials warn that dry land could amplify fire risk even as climate scientists watch how
With the Atlantic hurricane season just a little more than a week away, NOAA’s seasonal tropical cyclone outlooks for 2026 landed at its Lakeland, Florida, operations center—where Hurricane Hunter crews Kermit and Miss Piggy were on hand this week.
The announcement itself didn’t center on climate change. But the conversation around it has been hard to miss lately. as drought. wildfires and heatwaves are pushing into more people’s day-to-day lives. And now. climate scientists and meteorologists are staring at the shifting odds for this summer’s weather: chances have topped 80% for a strong El Niño to form.
The questions aren’t academic. Could near-record ocean temperatures paired with El Niño make 2026 the hottest year on record?. Will El Niño worsen already dangerous drought and fire conditions. fueling record-breaking wildfire seasons in some parts of the country?. Scientists say it is still too soon to answer those questions—but they are increasingly pointing to a summer defined by extremes.
Hurricane timing remains a moving target, but forecasters are watching the details. Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, and they’ve flagged a warm Gulf of Mexico as a potential factor early on. In the East Pacific, hurricane season began May 15.
Heat is arriving early, too. Intense summer-like conditions are showing up in some places nearly a month before the official start of summer, alongside days before climatological summer on June 1.
More than three-quarters of the country is already in drought conditions. At the moment, more than 75% of the U.S. is experiencing drought. Wildfires have ramped up in recent weeks, and in many regions the worst of the season may still be ahead.
In California, firefighters battled large fires this week, including a blaze in Simi Valley that forced many residents to evacuate. A 16,000-acre fire is burning on Santa Rosa Island in Channel Islands National Park off the California coast. Officials are investigating whether the fire might have been started by an SOS flare from a shipwrecked sailor—an unusual possibility that has also brought attention to other ignition sources.
Arizona saw new warnings this week. Red flag warnings appeared in the state, triggering campfire restrictions and alerts about increasing wildfire conditions. The Arizona Republic, part of the USA TODAY Network, pointed to a non-native, highly flammable tree as a fuel source in recent fires.
In Florida, drought is stretching even harder: 90% of the state is in drought. Wilton Simpson, commissioner for the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, warned residents to follow burn bans. At a news conference. Simpson said. “It’s going to take at least a foot of rain to get us out of drought in most counties.” He added. “We’ve had many fires start this year from backyard fires getting out of hand.”.
Southern Georgia tells a quieter—but not fully safe—story. Wildfires there have been 90% contained, but fire officials said hot spots remain a concern.
The hurricane outlook may be focused on ocean patterns. but the wildfire risk is being shaped by what’s already on the ground. El Niño’s potential influence on Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons is expected. but forecasters say the real outcome will depend on how warm sea surface temperatures interact with the El Niño pattern and wind currents during the summer.
At the same time, the energy system is also feeling the heat—literally and operationally. With data centers planned or under construction around the country. a merger between two large electricity companies is drawing concerns. driven largely by the needs of data centers. Clayton Park. a business writer with the USA TODAY Network in Florida. reported on the proposed merger and how data centers are at the center of it. A proposed data center in Coachella, California, has drawn extra scrutiny after it came up during the annual music festival.
Elsewhere in energy, the Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade association representing the solar energy and energy storage industry, announced that the U.S. energy storage market broke a record for its biggest first quarter ever.
Beyond fire and storms, other risks are already on the radar. The report also pointed readers toward the latest on the Colorado River and a growing number of tick bites in the United States.
El Niño NOAA tropical cyclone outlooks 2026 Hurricane Hunter Kermit Miss Piggy drought wildfires Atlantic hurricane season Gulf of Mexico East Pacific hurricane season Red flag warnings burn bans data centers electricity company merger solar energy storage market