El Niño is officially underway and NOAA says there’s a 63% chance it could become very strong from November to January, potentially intensifying droughts, floods, cyclones, extreme heat and fires. NOAA meteorologists stress the odds are being “tilted,” not gua
El Niño has officially arrived, and NOAA meteorologists are already warning that it could push a warming planet harder—turning normal weather patterns into higher-stakes extremes.
At a Thursday press conference. Ariel Cohen. a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office. said there is a 63% chance that the climate pattern could be “very strong” during the November to January time period. He added that it could rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record, going back to 1950.
NOAA doesn’t call this year’s setup a “Super El Niño,” at least not in its own classification. Instead, meteorologists sort El Niños as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong.
What makes El Niño more than a headline is the way it shifts the ocean-and-atmosphere engine that governs weather. Cohen explained that El Niño is marked by above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Under normal conditions, warm water in that region is typically pushed westward, and cooler water follows. But during El Niño. the trade winds slacken. and the warm pool extends farther east—changing how the jet stream behaves.
The usual pattern, Cohen said, is wetter conditions across the Southern U.S. and drier than normal conditions farther north. Even then, experts say the details can vary widely from place to place. An El Niño “just significantly tilts the odds” toward certain weather events rather than delivering the same outcome everywhere.
For El Niño to formally take hold. temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean must reach 0.5 degrees C above average for a few months in a row. In a “very strong” or Super El Niño, sea surface temperatures rise 2 degrees above average. Cohen said El Niño conditions are already present and expected to strengthen across the Northern Hemisphere over the next several months.
That extra heat is arriving on top of a world that is already warming. The World Resources Institute warns that the extreme warming could amplify droughts. floods. cyclones. extreme heat and more damaging forest fires. The UN Secretary-General echoed the stakes earlier in June. saying in a video message that “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. ” with impacts that could hit “even harder” and “cross borders with devastating speed.”.
The concern isn’t abstract. Scientists have pointed to conditions resembling a very strong El Niño experienced in 1997-98. The World Bank estimated that El Niño cost governments around the world $45 billion in damages, “due to severe storms, droughts and other effects.”
When heat and shifting rainfall patterns collide with already risky seasons, fire danger can sharpen. WRI notes that warmer and “erratic” climate change conditions can combine with El Niño to lower “ignition thresholds,” making forest fires more likely to start.
Even oceans and food systems are in the story. Marine heat waves driven by El Niño can disrupt ecosystems. Andrew Leising of NOAA’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center said plankton abundance goes down with strong El Niños. That matters because plankton are the base of the marine food web.
Past strong El Niños have also brought more whale entanglements in fishing gear, Leising said, as whales come closer to shore for food. He added that seals, sea lions and marine birds have died off, and that sharks come closer to shore.
There’s also the risk of harmful algal blooms. Leising said the probability of those blooms increases, harming wildlife and also the food system. In the past, those blooms led to several closures of crab and shellfish fishers.
A very strong El Niño could also threaten food security on land. WRI notes that it would “layer drought, heat or flooding risks onto an already fragile system,” increasing the likelihood that high costs turn into real food shortages.
Still, NOAA is clear about what it can’t promise. Cohen said, “Things are still going to play out in any number of ways,” adding, “We can’t guarantee weather conditions being a specific form in several months from now.”
The practical message from the press event was grounded in urgency rather than certainty. Cohen said people should stay attuned to credible sources like the National Weather Service and pay close attention to guidance from emergency management officials.
El Niño NOAA National Weather Service Ariel Cohen very strong El Niño droughts floods cyclones forest fires marine heat waves plankton harmful algal blooms fisheries food system World Resources Institute United Nations Secretary-General 1997-98 El Niño
So is this why my allergies are acting up again or is it just the weather being dramatic?
63% means nothing to me tbh. Like 1 out of 2 says it won’t be “very strong,” right? Also NOAA always says extremes and then it’s just kinda rainy for a week.
Wait, I thought El Niño is supposed to be in the winter and then it’s over by spring? Now they’re saying November to January and also droughts AND floods? How can it be both, like which one wins lol. And the “tilted odds” wording sounds like they’re covering themselves.
This is probably why my uncle keeps saying the fires are gonna be worse every year. If the jet stream changes, doesn’t that mean it’s basically controllable? Like can we just “turn it off” or something? Also “not super El Niño” but 0.5 degrees C is still super enough… idk. Either way I’m stocking up on fans and bottled water.