The National Weather Service says there’s an 82% chance El Niño begins in summer 2026—raising risks of heavier rain, high tides and storm surges. Here’s a practical checklist for homeowners, plus what insurance typically does—and doesn’t—cover.
The warning doesn’t arrive with thunder—it arrives with a percentage.
The National Weather Service has announced an 82% chance that El Niño will begin in the summer of 2026. That natural pattern warms parts of the Pacific Ocean. and the effects can ripple through the climate across many parts of the United States. For homeowners—especially in coastal communities—the concern is simple: heavier rain. high tides. and storm surges can follow. turning “preparedness” into something you’ll wish you’d started months ago.
El Niño’s mechanics matter because they point to where the damage often starts. The pattern can temporarily raise sea levels, creating higher tides that push more inland and flood homes. It can also bring more rain in some parts of the country. leading to water back-ups. clogged storm drains. and more.
For many households, the immediate question becomes less scientific and more practical: What do you do now, while the calendar still gives you time?
A homeowner’s early move is to reduce the chances that a storm turns into an expensive failure. Clean your gutters and downspouts. Test your sump pump. Install water alarms in your home. Trim dead tree branches. Take photos and make an inventory of your belongings. Pack an emergency go-bag.
Financial readiness sits alongside physical readiness. Regina Neenan. CFP®. ABFP®. the Director of Cash-Flow and Insurance Planning and Partner at FPFoCo. a company specializing in personal financial advising. recommends homeowners keep an emergency cash reserve. She describes it as “sufficient to cover regular home emergencies. like a water heater going out. or plumbing or electrical issues.”.
The reasoning is personal and familiar: being able to pay for small repairs yourself can help prevent filing a claim and raising premiums. Even when damage is larger, an emergency fund can help cover a deductible.
And when power fails—because storms do that, too—the priority shifts to staying safe and running on basics. Ready.gov. which educates the public about disaster preparedness. says homeowners can prepare for a power outage by taking inventory of emergency supplies such as flashlights. batteries and portable chargers. Stock up on nonperishable foods and make sure you have a manual can opener. If you take medicine that requires refrigeration, ask your health care provider for guidance on storage.
For those considering generators, safety has to be part of the plan, not an afterthought. Ready.gov’s experts recommend using generators outdoors, at least 20 feet from your home, to reduce the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.
Storm readiness also means looking outward at what the wind can turn into a projectile. If you expect high winds, bring smaller items—furniture, grills and toys—inside. Flying objects such as patio umbrellas and planters can cause severe damage and break glass if they’re left outside. For large items like a trampoline or pergola, secure them with heavy-duty lawn anchors.
Flood risk is where the checklist becomes especially urgent, because insurance rules can be unforgiving. Larry Kissel. AVP of Property for Personal Insurance at Travelers Insurance. explains that homeowners insurance covers some storm damage. but “it typically does not cover flooding.” If you live in an area prone to floods. he says to consider buying a separate policy just for flood damage. The National Flood Insurance Program sells policies for homeowners looking for flood risk home insurance coverage.
Kissel also draws a distinction many homeowners only learn after the first claim. “Most homeowners policies cover wind damage,” one of the most common causes of storm-related property damage. He adds that most homeowners insurance policies will help cover repair costs after tornadoes. hurricanes and some other types of storms. But coverage may vary depending on the policy. so homeowners should review their individual policy details to understand what’s covered.
The timing of the forecast matters, but so does what people tend to underestimate: the gap between storm damage and flooding, and the way that gap can determine whether repairs are paid for quickly—or delayed.
The broader storm picture underscores why planning ahead can’t be left to the last minute. The National Center for Environmental Information says the 403 severe weather and climate events that occurred between 1980 and 2025 cost nearly $3 trillion in damage. In 2024. the types of storms that exceeded $1 billion in damages included five tropical cyclones. one wildfire. two winter storms and 17 severe storms.
For homeowners trying to make sense of what’s coming, several questions come up again and again.
Will El Niño increase power outages? El Niño can bring heavy rain, storms, flooding and high winds, which means it can also cause power outages in affected areas.
What kind of storms cause the most damage to homes? The National Center for Environmental Information points to the record of high-cost events, including five tropical cyclones, one wildfire, two winter storms and 17 severe storms in 2024 alone.
Does homeowners insurance cover flood damage? Standard home insurance policies can cover damage from storms, but they rarely cover damage due to flooding. Homeowners in flood-prone areas can purchase a separate flood insurance policy.
What is not covered during severe weather events?. Homeowners insurance policies do not typically cover floods, earthquakes, hurricanes or sewer backups. Homeowners are urged to review their policy carefully to see what is covered and what’s excluded. and if they have a home warranty policy. to review that policy’s exclusions too.
Right now, there’s no need to panic—just to prepare. El Niño’s likely start in summer 2026 gives homeowners a window to move: clear the drains, secure the yard, review the policy, build the cash reserve, and pack for the possibility that the lights may go out when the weather turns.
El Niño 2026 forecast National Weather Service flooding risk homeowners insurance flood insurance storm surge high tides power outages Ready.gov sump pump emergency cash reserve Travelers Insurance National Flood Insurance Program