Dow futures – U.S. stock futures rose sharply Monday night as oil prices fell after President Donald Trump said talks with Iran to end the war were “proceeding nicely,” while also warning the U.S. could go on the offensive if negotiations fail. The move comes as traders wei
When New York traders returned to their screens after the Memorial Day holiday, the message was fast and loud: risk-on was back. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures jumped 441 points, or 0.9%, with S&P 500 futures up 0.9% and Nasdaq-100 futures advancing 1.2%.
The rally wasn’t happening in a vacuum. Oil prices were sliding sharply after President Donald Trump said Monday that talks with Iran to end the war were “proceeding nicely.” He also warned the U.S. could go on the offensive if negotiations break down. Crude moved in response—West Texas Intermediate futures were down around 6%.
Last week’s tape still mattered. The S&P 500 climbed 0.9% to notch its longest weekly winning streak since late 2023. The Dow climbed 2.1%, marking its third weekly gain in four weeks. The Nasdaq rose 0.5% last week, its seventh in eight weeks.
Earnings expectations helped keep buyers in the market. even as investors tried to figure out how long the momentum could last. Adam Parker. founder of Trivariate Research. wrote: “There is no doubt that fundamentals are at least partially responsible for the market rally. ” adding that with earnings projected to grow 23% this year and 16% next year. there’s a credible argument that price-to-forward earnings has been modestly contracting despite rising earnings projections and strong earnings growth.
Oil’s slump also played a role in easing last week’s pressure on equities. U.S. crude lost 8.4%, its worst week since April 17. But crude didn’t fall all the way back to earlier levels from the start of the year. leaving traders stuck with a familiar tension: pressure has eased. yet price concerns haven’t fully disappeared.
That’s where the Federal Reserve picture gets complicated. Even with oil down, investor expectations for easier policy have been tempered. Traders were pricing in an 8.5% chance of a rate hike in July—up from 0.9% a month ago—using the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The sequence coming into this week is visible in the numbers: futures rose. oil fell. and the negotiation rhetoric shifted the tone—yet rate-hike odds moved the other way. suggesting investors aren’t ready to fully relax. One day is being priced like progress is within reach. The next breath is being priced like it could still fall apart.
Dow futures S&P 500 futures Nasdaq-100 futures oil prices West Texas Intermediate U.S.-Iran talks Donald Trump Memorial Day holiday Federal Reserve FedWatch tool CME Group