Donroe Doctrine Surge Drives Violence, Impunity

A new ACLED analysis says Trump’s “Donroe Doctrine” has accelerated militarized approaches against organized crime across the Americas—contributing to group fragmentation, rising cartel drone attacks, increased killings by security forces, and a broader climat

By the time the latest strike landed in the Pacific Ocean, it had already become part of a growing campaign—one that critics say turns the region’s crime crisis into a wider, deadlier conflict.

A new analysis by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project. ACLED. argues that the Trump administration’s aggressive diplomatic and military engagement in the U.S.’s “backyard. ” dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine. ” has helped intensify violence across the Americas. The report was shared with The Intercept.

Sandra Pellegrini and Tiziano Breda, senior Latin America analysts with ACLED, describe a shift in U.S. pressure on organized crime that they say is accelerating the spread of militarized security approaches throughout the region. They warn that the volatility being produced inside the organized crime ecosystem is likely to fuel more violence for the rest of Trump’s term—potentially undercutting any short-term improvements that hardline tactics might yield.

The analysis ties that escalation to a set of actions that the Trump administration and others have framed as consistent with the “Donroe Doctrine. ” described in the material as a “bastardization” of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine. The report points to strikes on civilian boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean; an attack on Venezuela and the abduction of its president; CIA operations in Mexico; joint counter-cartel operations in Ecuador dubbed “Operation Total Extermination”; and expanded military and intelligence operations elsewhere in Latin America.

In countries where cartels’ revenue sources are described as most diversified, Pellegrini and Breda say militarized security strategies have produced counterproductive effects, including fragmentation among armed groups and intensified competition.

Ecuador is offered as a clear example. The report says the capture or killing of gang leaders there has been followed by the proliferation of splinter groups. It notes that the reported number of gangs increased from 24 in 2023 to 37 by the end of last year. It also describes how. after José Adolfo Macías—the leader of the gang Los Choneros—was extradited to the United States. another group. Los Lobos. pushed into its rival’s strongholds. fueling additional violence.

The report also describes a “light-footprint air war” strategy by cartels—an approach similar to tactics used by the U.S. military during the War on Terror and now in its boat strike campaign. Pellegrini and Breda write that armed groups in Mexico and Colombia are employing weaponized drones to target security forces. in an effort to maximize the impact of attacks while minimizing the costs of a direct confrontation.

The numbers in the report are stark. In Mexico, cartel drone attacks are said to have jumped 567 percent from 2023 to 2025. In Colombia, drone attacks are described as having spiked 10,600 percent—from one strike in 2023 to at least 107 in 2025.

U.S. military actions are also central to the report’s assessment. It says the U.S. military’s campaign of strikes on boats in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean—described as illegal in the analysis—has produced 59 attacks on so-called drug boats since September 2025. killing 195 civilians. The report adds that the latest strike, on May 8 in the Pacific Ocean, killed three people.

Beyond direct strikes, the analysis says remote violence has expanded in ways that put civilians at greater risk. Pellegrini and Breda write that “forms of remote violence. ” including aerial bombardments and. in the case of Haiti. drones used by a special task force. have exposed civilians to shelling. They say this has caused the number of people killed from clashes between security forces and gangs to “skyrocket.”.

The report’s authors say Trump is fostering both a “hardline response to crime across the region” and “a climate of impunity” that has led to runaway state violence. They report that operations by security forces reportedly killed almost 6,900 people last year—the highest total since 2018.

The “Donroe Doctrine” framework, the analysis says, has also included pressure and threats aimed at multiple governments across the hemisphere. Under the doctrine. it says the Trump administration has repeatedly bullied Panama and threatened Canada. Colombia. Greenland. and perhaps also Iceland. while increasingly threatening Cuba.

Last week, the report points to a domestic legal move tied to Cuba: federal prosecutors in Florida unsealed an indictment charging former Cuban leader Raúl Castro and five others in connection with the Cuban military’s fatal downing of two planes 30 years ago.

At the same time, the administration’s claims that Cuba poses a military threat have faced pushback from Democrats in Congress. They warn that the administration is crafting a pretext to justify an invasion.

Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said: “Look, the Cuban regime is an appalling regime, but it is no more a national security threat than Nicaragua is. It’s just insane to say that it is, and especially if it’s done in the service of military action.”

Taken together, the report’s central contention is that a faster, harsher U.S. push against armed criminal networks is widening the theater of conflict—one where fragmentation, technological escalation, and civilian deaths are all counted as part of the outcome.

And as the administration continues to press forward, the analysis suggests the violence may not be confined to a single fight. It may spread—through splintering groups, drone attacks, and a tightening sense that consequences on the ground are being absorbed rather than contained.

Trump Donroe Doctrine ACLED analysis Americas violence organized crime drone attacks Mexico drone attacks Colombia Ecuador gangs Los Choneros Los Lobos boat strikes civilian deaths Haiti drones Raúl Castro indictment Cuba military threat Jim Himes