Donchenko aims for UFC streak as Berggren debuts

Daniil Donchenko heads into UFC Baku looking to extend his winning momentum to two straight inside the National Gymnastics Arena, favored at -500 against promotional debutant Theodor Berggren, listed at +360. The matchup pairs Donchenko’s early UFC run with Be

When UFC Baku tips off at the National Gymnastics Arena on Saturday. Daniil Donchenko won’t just be fighting for another victory. He’ll be trying to keep the momentum that brought him through his first two UFC bouts—while Theodor Berggren steps in as a promotional debutant with a different kind of pressure on his shoulders.

Donchenko enters the fight as the betting favorite at -500 UFC odds. Berggren is the underdog at +360, but he arrives riding a two-fight win streak outside the UFC.

The matchup also comes with a clear set of numbers that shape what the fight is expected to look like. Donchenko is 24, while Berggren is 26. Donchenko stands at 5’11” and has a reach of 71 inches. Berggren is listed at 6’0”; his reach is shown as N/A, while his leg reach is 42 inches. Donchenko’s record is listed as 14-28-3. and his fighting style is described as a kickboxer. with a 79% finishing rate. Berggren’s record is listed as N/ A for this section. with his grappling-forward approach reflected in a finishing rate of 100%.

The prediction that’s gaining traction heading into the bout is a TKO/KO win for Donchenko. The reasoning given is that Donchenko has the better striking and the kind of one-punch knockout power that can change the fight quickly. Even with Berggren’s ability to force scrambles and get his way in clinch battles. the expectation is that Donchenko could overpower him and reverse positions against the cage.

At the same time, the forecast hinges on where Berggren’s style tends to break down. Berggren is described as being known for relentless grappling, but the concern is his response when opponents start defending takedowns. The view is that frustration can set in. and cardio can become a factor as the fight goes on—opening room for opponents to take advantage later.

Experience is another strand in the lead-up. Donchenko has already competed on the UFC stage twice, and that experience is presented as a major factor against Berggren, who will make his debut under the Las Vegas-based organization.

Donchenko’s recent path is straightforward in its momentum. He was a product of The Ultimate Fighter 33, where he won in August by defeating Matt Dixon via first-round stoppage. Since then, he has swept his two UFC bouts, with wins over Rodrigo Sezinando and Alex Morono.

Berggren’s last run is a mix of wins and setbacks before he takes the next step into the UFC. His last pro fights included three wins—over Moein Ahmadi, Daniele Battaglia, and Abdulatip Samedov—and two losses—against Justin Burlinson and Leonardo Damiani.

For both fighters. the stakes are personal and immediate: Donchenko is trying to extend a UFC win streak to two and keep the spotlight on his power and pace. Berggren is stepping into the octagon for the first time in a new promotion. carrying a two-fight win streak and a style built to grind. Saturday’s fight is where those contrasts—striking strength versus grappling pressure. UFC experience versus debut nerves—will collide inside the National Gymnastics Arena.

UFC Baku Daniil Donchenko Theodor Berggren odds -500 +360 National Gymnastics Arena prediction TKO KO