Colts could – Daniel Jones rebounded with the Indianapolis Colts last season, but a two-year, $88 million contract with $50 million guaranteed is now drawing sharp skepticism. Analyst Bill Barnwell says the structure forced the Colts to guarantee nearly all of that money in
Daniel Jones walked back into Indianapolis and looked like a quarterback on the rise again—at least for a stretch of last season that kept the Colts pulling ahead in the AFC South.
After six disappointing seasons with the New York Giants and a short run with the Minnesota Vikings two seasons ago. the 28-year-old quarterback finally found a rhythm in head coach Shane Steichen’s system. As the Colts’ starter, Jones finished 8-5 and posted 3,101 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. His passer rating, 100.2, was a career-best. For much of the year, Indianapolis sat in first place in the AFC South.
Then the season ended the way no comeback story wants to: an Achilles injury toward the end of the year. Jones was placed on injured reserve, and despite that abrupt stop, the Colts moved quickly to keep him. He signed a two-year, $88 million deal that included $50 million guaranteed.
It’s the guaranteed part of that contract now under the microscope.
Bill Barnwell. writing for ESPN. argued the Colts may have made a costly bet on Jones when his best evidence came in one season. In particular, he pointed to the way the Colts secured the re-signing without tying themselves to a larger multiyear commitment. To bring Jones back, Barnwell said, the Colts had to guarantee $49.5 million in 2026.
Barnwell also said the Colts weren’t able to protect themselves with per-game roster bonuses: he noted they could tie no more than $510. 000 of that guarantee into per-game roster bonuses. In his view. that structure would have offered the Colts clearer protection if Jones couldn’t play to start the year or if he ended up benched by the end of his second season.
Barnwell framed the deal as a potential repeat of a mistake the league has seen before. He compared it to what the Giants did when they made what he called a franchise-altering decision after being convinced by “one good year.” Barnwell’s concern is that the Colts—already searching for stability at quarterback since Andrew Luck retired in 2018—could find themselves carrying a big guaranteed commitment without the reliability they’re hoping to build.
Since Luck’s retirement. Indianapolis has tried to fill the void with a long list of options: Jacoby Brissett. Brian Hoyer. Philip Rivers. Carson Wentz. Matt Ryan. Sam Ehlinger. Nick Foles. Gardner Minshew. Anthony Richardson. Joe Flacco. and Riley Leonard. None, Barnwell’s critique suggests, has matched what the team needed as cleanly as Jones did last year.
After Jones’ contract was signed, the reaction around the league among analysts was that the Colts overpaid for what could ultimately be a one-good-year quarterback—mirroring the doubts raised after the Giants’ similar approach with Jones.
The tension in Indianapolis now is straightforward: the Colts are paying for something they believe Jones can be, but the guarantee is large enough that if last season turns out to be the exception rather than the start of a stable run, it could quickly become a regret they can’t easily undo.
Daniel Jones Indianapolis Colts Shane Steichen AFC South Achilles injury $88 million contract $50 million guaranteed Bill Barnwell quarterback