Collins keeps Trump at arm’s length to survive

With Democrats hoping to end her long run, Sen. Susan Collins faces a tougher-than-usual challenger in combat veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner—while the president’s public restraint underscores how Collins has mastered distancing herself from Donald Tr

PORTLAND, Maine — In a race that Democrats are trying to remake from the ground up, Susan Collins is watching a challenger crawl out from under a familiar shadow: the shadow of President Donald Trump.

Collins. the Maine Republican seeking reelection to a sixth Senate term. is campaigning against combat veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner. a first-time entrant for a job that Collins has held long enough to become an institution in her own state. Last time around, Democrats pinned their hopes on state lawmaker Sara Gideon. This time. the strategy is to find a candidate strong enough to crack the brand Collins built over years—sky-high name recognition. a record-breaking stretch of consecutive Senate votes. and a reputation for winning federal funding for Maine.

But Collins isn’t simply surviving because she’s known. She’s survived because, even while Trump has tightened his grip on the Republican Party, she has repeatedly found room to maneuver—sometimes close enough to avoid punishment, and sometimes far enough to look independent at home.

“She’s shown time and time again where her state’s electorate is,” said political consultant Matt Mackowiak, who worked for John Cornyn’s failed reelection campaign.

In this election year, the contrast is hard to miss. Trump-endorsed opponents knocked off other Senate Republicans in primaries—John Cornyn of Texas and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton against Cornyn. Cornyn lost. Cassidy lost his primary to Trump-endorsed state Rep. Julia Letlow.

Collins, though, has not drawn the same kind of direct attack.

Trump-endorsed rivals didn’t always stay afloat, but Collins has managed something different: a deliberate dance that keeps her from being fully absorbed into Trump’s orbit—while also avoiding a final, irreversible break. And so far, Trump has not campaigned against her.

The White House declined to comment on Collins’ bid. Political advisers close to Trump. however. said the president understands that Republicans must keep control of Congress after November—and that Collins must be accommodated to prevent a broader wipeout like the 2018 “blue wave” midterms. when Democrats flipped the House.

Collins has leaned into that positioning, and her campaign messaging echoes it. Her spokesperson, Blake Kernan, said Collins “has worked with five different Presidents throughout her Senate tenure, and has never agreed with any of them on every issue.”

“When she agrees with an effort, she will support it; when she disagrees, she does not hesitate to speak up for what she believes is the right outcome for Maine and for America,” Kernan said in a statement.

Democrats are betting the next phase of that balancing act won’t hold.

They need to flip four seats to take control of the Senate in November. Maine is among the top targets, along with Alaska, Ohio and North Carolina. Their hopes include what they see as potential openings—Trump’s falling approval ratings and the war in Iran and its subsequent effect on oil prices and the economy.

Platner’s message to voters is that Collins’ independence is not as real as it sounds.

He has argued repeatedly that she allowed Trump’s Supreme Court nominations to move forward, a path that in 2022 led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark decision that legalized abortion among other major issues.

At a victory party on Tuesday, Platner said: “Susan Collins may have started her career decades ago in Washington with good intentions, but she has become just as spineless and corrupt as the establishment she now serves.”

Platner supporters say the race is about more than policy. John Keenan, of Sullivan, Maine, said Maine has grown tired of “the same old system” and sees a chance in putting “youth into the campaign, with new instead of a rubber stamp.”

Collins’ critics have tried to push the fight toward Trump. But what complicates that effort is that Trump has been, at least for now, strangely quiet.

In recent weeks, he has refrained from singling out Collins—especially after she cruised to a Republican primary victory against a lack of a credible challenger. Trump has often criticized her in the past for occasionally defying him on some issues.

Last week, Collins voted with Democrats to block the nearly $1.8 billion fund the president wanted to create to benefit allies that he claims were unfairly targeted by law enforcement. That is the kind of moment when Trump often escalated his public pressure.

In an interview with the New York Post last week, Trump conceded, “She’s always down in the polls and she survives.”

That survival has been a pattern before. In 2020, Collins defeated Sara Gideon, the Maine House speaker, by almost 9 points. That same year, President Joe Biden beat Trump by a similar margin in the state.

Mackowiak said the gap between what Democrats want and what he sees as the reality in Maine is too wide.

“There’s just no pathway to a MAGA senator from Maine,” he said.

He also described what he sees as a coordinated approach by Trump’s political operation, suggesting it is adapting to Collins’ lead rather than trying to rupture the race from the outside.

“It does appear that the Trump political operation is soberly analyzing the electoral environment in Maine and really kind of follows her lead as it relates to that state and that race, particularly this cycle,” Mackowiak said.

Even some Republicans who back Collins see an advantage in her distance.

Chuck Ellis. a Republican from Westbrook who runs a digital marketing company. said Collins’ reluctance to move in lockstep with Trump can be a plus. While he acknowledged that “hard-line” voters might disapprove. Ellis said. “ultimately a lot of your conservatives. your Republicans. are people who are a bit more pragmatic.”.

Ellis pointed to moments when Collins didn’t match the White House line. Collins opposed the White House’s signature tax cut and spending package last year. She also voted against a proposal to claw back $9 billion in foreign aid and public media funding.

Those breaks triggered Trump’s anger online. “Republicans, when in doubt, vote the exact opposite of Senator Susan Collins,” Trump wrote.

In January, Trump also lashed out at Collins and four other Senate Republicans who joined Democrats to start a debate over restricting the president’s use of force in Venezuela. Collins later received a profanity-laced call from Trump.

That history makes the president’s current restraint feel significant—less like agreement and more like calculation.

As chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, Collins last week cast her 10,000th Senate vote in a row, setting a record. For some voters, it’s a reminder that Collins isn’t just surviving a challenge; she’s governing in a way that matters to federal budgets.

“She has been able to do and show that ‘I am bringing money and resources from the federal government to Maine to help Maine,’” Ellis said.

With November approaching, the White House may keep more distance. Collins is unlikely to get a personal campaign visit from Trump, despite the president visiting other states with key Senate races, including Iowa and Michigan. He could even campaign personally for Paxton.

Vice President JD Vance has been to Maine, where he promoted his anti-fraud task force. Collins did not attend Vance’s speech in Bangor last month, where he acknowledged the senator’s distance from the Trump administration.

“If she was as partisan as I sometimes wish that she was,” Vance said, “she would not be a good fit for the people of Maine.”

For Democrats, Platner’s task is to take that carefully maintained distance and turn it into a liability before voters settle into their own habits.

For Collins, the task is to keep doing what she has done for years: stay close enough to avoid becoming a target, stay far enough to look like she belongs to Maine—not to Washington’s latest fight.

Susan Collins Graham Platner Maine Senate race Trump abortion Roe v. Wade Senate control Appropriations Committee Matt Mackowiak John Cornyn Bill Cassidy Ken Paxton Julia Letlow