College football coach hot seat list goes from Bill Belichick to Lincoln Riley
Bill Belichick press conference video as UNC football starts practice in 2026
Before UNC football kicked off preseason practice in preparation for the 2026 season, head coach Bill Belichick spent 25 minutes with media members to discuss the Tar Heels.
- Big names on hot seat include Bill Belichick, Mike Norvell.
- Lincoln Riley’s buyout offers protection, but it’s time to win in Year 5.
- Dabo Swinney on the hot seat? He’s a Clemson legend, so not yet.
College football’s hot seat cranked to inferno status last season. Seats melted and turned to ash across the land, from LSU to Penn State. In the SEC and Big Ten alone, nine coaches were fired across the two super conferences.
That breakneck twirl of the coaching carousel could mean a slightly quieter spin this year. Quieter, but not silent.
Here’s our list of notable coaches who’ll need to beat the heat in 2026:
College football coaches on a scalding hot seat
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Fickell seemed like a good choice when Wisconsin plucked him from Cincinnati, not long after he took the Bearcats to the playoff. Not all hires that look smart on paper turn out to be good in reality. Wisconsin faced a decision last year amid a second straight losing season: Fire Fickell and fork over millions in buyout bucks, or up the ante on NIL investment. Wisconsin kept Fickell, choosing to pour more into its roster. Chris McIntosh, Wisconsin’s athletic director who retained Fickell, left in April for a job at the Big Ten offices. That leaves Fickell on a scorching-hot seat, working for a boss who didn’t hire him. It’s win or walk, and Fickell knows it.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Lane Kiffin sprinkled an interesting breadcrumb during his introductory news conference at LSU: He revealed three schools tried to hire him away from Mississippi. LSU, Florida and … well, Kiffin didn’t reveal the third, but ESPN later reported Florida State was that mystery school. It’s no surprise FSU considered ousting Norvell last year, when he served a fourth losing season in six years on the job. Norvell’s big buyout (plus Kiffin choosing LSU) protected him, but he can’t hide any longer. FSU would owe Norvell a buyout of about $45 million if it fires him after this season. That’ll be failure money the Seminoles must stomach if he can’t reignite a starved program.
Dave Aranda, Baylor
Aranda survived the hot seat two years ago by delivering a winning record, but after going 5-7 last season, he’s back in the hot box. He’s put his hopes in Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway to bail him out of trouble. Aranda won the Big 12 championship in 2021, but that’s too long ago to offer him any support. Plus, like others on this list, he’s working for a different AD than the one who hired him. Like Norvell, Aranda is entering his seventh season. Coaches who fizzle in Year 7 typically don’t see a Year 8.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
Locksley reiterated his recruiting chops a couple of years ago when he signed blue-chip quarterback Malik Washington. To keep his job, Locksley must show his coaching chops and accelerate in Washington’s second season as the starter. Locksley delivered some solid records and bowl bids in the middle of his tenure, now entering its eighth season, but he’s only under contract through the 2027 season. That leaves him protected by a buyout that’s peanuts compared to most peers. Maryland ratcheted up NIL support, and so now Locksley’s gotta win, or he’s gotta go.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
Belichick hasn’t just been bad for North Carolina. He’s been a national embarrassment. There was his bizarre interview with CBS before he ever coached a game. There’s the persistent drama with Belichick’s 25-year-old girlfriend, aka his “Muse,” who’s waged a crusade against the university. Then, Belichick’s GM got placed on administrative leave. Belichick might be the GOAT in the NFL, but he’s a joke in college football, and it’s hard to justify playing the long game with a 74-year-old coach. Either he wins now, or North Carolina can fork over $10 million to fire him after this season and cut its losses.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Nobody can say Beamer didn’t deliver good times for South Carolina. Twice, he beat Dabo Swinney and Clemson. His Gamecocks hung 30 points in the first half on then-No. 3 Texas A&M last November. Then, the second half started, and South Carolina blew a 27-point lead. Hello darkness, my old friend. Beamer switched offensive coordinators in the offseason, but his roster includes many familiar faces, including veteran quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Beamer has supplied a yo-yo tenure. To keep his job, the Gamecocks must climb the string once more.
It’s warm and could get hot
Lincoln Riley, USC
USC pushed in a big stack of chips to plunder Riley from Oklahoma. What’s it got to show for its investment? No playoff appearances, and Riley’s best season was his first, when the Trojans played in the Pac-12. USC is a private school, so Riley’s buyout is not public, but it’s believed to be a whopper. That may keep him off the scalding seat, but he’s facing undeniable pressure in Year 5. Perhaps, he’s ready to kick into gear with an experienced team. No team returned more starters than USC.
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
The temperature around Satterfield fluctuates like spring in the Midwest. One day it’s warm, next day it’s cool, then warm again. He entered last season facing heat. Then, the Bearcats started 7-1. Ah, a nice, cool breeze. But, wait. They finished by losing five straight, continuing Satterfield’s trend for November swoons. Then, Cincinnati got caught up in the Brendan Sorsby offseason saga. Maybe, Satterfield’s just a .500 coach. That’s about what he was at Louisville, and that’s about where the record finished last year. Satterfield can’t expect any contract protection. His buyout is cheap.
Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
Lebby chalked up a few “almost victories” (is that a stat?) by taking Texas, Tennessee and Florida to the brink. That’s nice, but moral victories tend to dry up for a coach now entering his third season. He needs more real W’s. Athletic director Zac Selmon hired Lebby and would love to see this work, but Lebby needs to show progress. Fortunately, the bar for progress isn’t that high. Lebby won just one SEC game through two seasons. Quarterback Kamario Taylor drew rave reviews in the preseason. Turn that hype into results.
Bill O’Brien, Boston College
What does Boston College expect out of its football program? Seriously, that’s a relevant question. O’Brien went 2-10 last year. Obviously, the school decided that wasn’t entirely the coach’s fault. To keep up with ACC peers, Boston College needed to invest more in its roster. Boston College joins a few other schools on this list that retained a struggling coach and ponied up more money for athletes. With more investment, comes expectations for improvement.
Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee State
Mason’s hire seemed OK in theory. He’d brought respectability to Vanderbilt up until a dreadful pandemic season that got him fired. He’s a respected defensive mind, so couldn’t he succeed at a Conference USA program that had, for years, been competitive under Rick Stockstill? Apparently not. Mason is 6-18 after two years. That’s dangerous footing.
They’re fine, but keep an eye on …
Dabo Swinney, Clemson
When a legend like Swinney supplies a bad season, you don’t even think about firing him. What if he has consecutive bad seasons? Clemson fans widely cherish Swinney. They’ll give him a pass for last year’s fizzle if he rebounds, but Swinney’s dynasty is finished. One of the great sign-and-develop coaches of his generation, he’s struggled to adapt in the player free agency era. Swinney, 56, says he has no plans to retire. That’s grand if he wins. And if he doesn’t? Swinney’s resume and his $57 million buyout offer security, but a season that mirrors the last would accelerate angst.
Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Athletic departments specialize in fiscal irresponsibility. Exhibit A: Nebraska, perhaps scared by Penn State’s opening, gave Rhule an extension and increased what it would cost to fire him. All this for a coach who’s .500 through three seasons. Nebraska shows little sign of momentum, with modest projections for the season win total. Thanks in part to the extension, Rhule’s buyout would top $60 million if he’s fired after this season. Is that too expensive for Nebraska to admit a mistake?
Brent Venables, Oklahoma
Venables, facing the hot seat last season, took over play-calling for the defense. It worked. Oklahoma’s defense propelled the Sooners to the playoff, and Venables put the thermometer in the cooler. And yet, expectations never wane at Oklahoma or inside the SEC. Venables’ tenure has lacked year-to-year consistency, and OU faces one of the nation’s toughest schedules. If the Sooners backtrack, Venables could find himself inching back toward the hot seat.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.