Casey Mize’s breakout with the Tigers wasn’t just about returning to the mound—it was about command. After a strong 2021 season with sharply improved BB/9 and hard-hit rates, his career was interrupted by Tommy John surgery and major time missed. Now, with 202
When Casey Mize gets the ball now, it feels different than it did earlier in his career—less like a hope, more like a plan that finally had time to work.
In his first full season as part of the big league rotation. Mize threw 150.1 innings across 30 starts and posted a 3.71 ERA. He didn’t reach the ideal strikeout pace—he finished with 7.1 K/9—but he still produced positive value. posting a 1.2 fWAR. The real shift came where hitters notice the most: his command. Mize cut his BB/9 from 4.13 in 2020 to 2.45 in 2021.
That same season also brought results that looked engineered, not accidental. Mize posted his lowest opponents’ hard-hit percentage at 40%, limiting barrels to 10%. He reduced his overall splitter usage and almost completely ditched the sinker, leaning more heavily on his four-seamer—and it worked.
Then the story turned.
After only 10 innings in 2022. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery that June and was shut down for the remainder of 2022. as well as all of the 2023 season. The improvements that made 2021 so promising didn’t disappear—but the timing did. It would be 2024 before anyone could see whether the changes would survive the rehab process.
Mize returned in 2024, appearing in 22 games and starting 20. He posted a 4.49 ERA across 102.1 innings. He was back—everyone wanted to see it—but his body didn’t settle. Injury trouble began as soon as spring training, when he dealt with a right adductor strain. He was then sidelined again until late August. after being placed on the 60-day IL in July with a left hamstring strain.
By 2025, the upward trend finally felt real again.
That year, Mize made his first career All-Star Game as an injury replacement for Red Sox lefty Garrett Crochet. Even with the injury replacement designation, the production earned the moment—what fans had waited to see finally looked like it belonged in the big leagues on a consistent basis.
The numbers backed it up. By the end of 2025, his walk percentage had fallen to 5.7%. His contact rate hit a new career low at 78.1% across the 149 innings in which he pitched to a 3.87 ERA. And for a pitcher who had spent years being pulled off the field before momentum could fully build. those figures read like more than good luck.
Still, the roller coaster never fully left.
Just as his trajectory started to resemble the kind of path that turns pitchers into steady front-of-the-line starters. another injury interrupted the rhythm. The question heading into 2026 isn’t whether Mize can produce when he’s healthy. It’s whether his body will let him keep doing it long enough for the Tigers to rely on him the way they’ve been waiting to.
Would 2026 continue the trend?
Casey Mize Detroit Tigers rotation command BB/9 Tommy John surgery All-Star injury replacement Garrett Crochet 2025 2026 ERA
So he finally figured it out?? Good for the Tigers I guess.
I don’t really care about BB/9 and all that, but cutting walks is always a win. Weird though, 2021 was like perfect then surgery just messed everything up. Seems like baseball is just one injury away from chaos.
Tommy John surgery again?? Don’t they say it’s supposed to be like 2 years and then you’re back? He had a 3.71 ERA but then 4.49 like that’s a huge drop. Maybe he’s not using the right pitch anymore, like he should go back to the sinker if it worked before.
Why does this read like a science project lol. “Command” command of what, like he’s controlling the ball with his mind? Also 150 innings?? I swear teams rush pitchers. He gets injured in spring training and then comes back and the numbers still aren’t the same… so I’m not sure if it’s “finally steadied” or just waiting for the next strain. Tigers gonna need more than one guy though.